2017年翻譯考試初級(jí)筆譯模擬題：多邊合作

　　【英譯漢】

　　Multilateral Cooperation Is Key to Resolving Global Financial Imbalances

　　The current surge in private capital flows has occurred in the midst of much-improved domestic policies and global financial conditions compared with those that prevailed during the capital flows surge of the l990s. 1 This time around, governments have so far generally managed to avoid excessive expansion of aggregate demand, large current-account deficits, and sharp appreciations of the real exchange rate. However, the policy agenda for managing capital flows is broad and complex, and considerable challenges remain.

　　Progress has been made in simplifying the very complex web of capital controls and exchange rate restrictions imposed by many countries. 2 But the gradual opening of capital accounts must be accompanied by a further strengthening of macroeconomic policies, the development of local capital markets and the institutions needed to regulate them, and the establishment of a system of risk management robust enough to respond to the needs of a more flexible exchange rate and open capital account. 3 Liberalization of the capital account once implemented is difficult to reverse. A return to capital controls should be seen only as a policy of last resort, to be used to dampen excessive exchange rate volatility or to moderate large inflows of capital when other policies, such as interest rates and intervention in foreign exchange markets, prove fruitless.

　　Despite the considerable improvement in policies in recent years, the surge in capital flows still presents substantial risks to developing countries. Future risks to economic and financial stability will likely take a different form and character4 than those encountered in the past - and may expose institutional and macroeconomic weaknesses that cannot be anticipated at this juncture. One warning sign of potential troubles has been the surge in portfolio inflows that has been associated with a dramatic escalation of stock market prices and valuations in many developing countries5, particularly in Asia, raising the risk of asset price bubbles. Other signs of possible trouble are appreciated exchange rates and current account deficits in some Eastern European countries. The impact of individual risks could be magnified if several were to occur simultaneously.

　　Developing-country policies must be reinforced by renewed international efforts to promote stability and maintain a financial environment conducive to a balanced expansion and deployment6 of capital flows in developing countries. One major risk to stability is the growing imbalance in global payments and the associated market anxiety/ about the possibility of a disorderly adjustment of the imbalance through sudden changes in exchange rates and global interest rates. Such changes could destabilize and disrupt international financial markets, which would cause all countries to suffer.

　　Although a coordinated policy of intervention in foreign currency markets is neither desirable nor feasible, a degree of multilateral cooperation is needed to address the current global imbalances. That approach, based on the mutual interests of deficit and surplus countries, should reflect the structural asymmetry between international reserve currencies and other currencies. At its center must be consensus on a blend of adjustments8 adequate to rebalance global aggregate demand without causing a global recession. Ordinarily, policy coordination among key players9 is unnecessary, because floating exchange rates, accompanying l0 monetary policies, and independent central banks do their job to facilitate adjustment to any shocks hitting the world economy. 11 But when the sustainability of the sources of financel2 for global payment imbalances is in doubt, as it is at present, multilateral cooperation to prevent sudden and disorderly market reactions becomes highly desirable13, especially if the growing global imbalances create pressure for protectionist trade policies in some countries.

　　Developing countries, in particular, have much to gain from multilateral cooperation, and much to lose from its absence14, and they would suffer disproportionately if instability were induced and a disorderly unwinding of global financial imbalances ensued. The world economy is moving toward a multipolar international monetary system in which the monetary and financial policies of the United States, Euro Area, Japan, and several key emerging market economies, including China, all exert substantial influence. Policymakers in emerging market economies should therefore strive to strengthen institutions and promote policies and mechanisms that will improve their ability to navigate in a world of increasingly integrated and interdependent financial and production systems. 15

　　【參考譯文】

　　多邊合作是解決全球金融失衡的關(guān)鍵所在

　　與20世紀(jì)90年代資本流動(dòng)激增的情況相比，當(dāng)前私人資本流動(dòng)的激增伴隨著國(guó)內(nèi)政策和全球金融狀況的大幅改善。在這一過(guò)程中，各國(guó)政府迄今都盡量避免出現(xiàn)總需求過(guò)度擴(kuò)張、經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目巨額赤字和實(shí)際匯率大幅升值的情況。但是，管理資本流動(dòng)的政策議程既廣泛，又復(fù)雜，依然存在重大挑戰(zhàn)。

　　許多國(guó)家的資本管制和匯率限制錯(cuò)綜復(fù)雜，在簡(jiǎn)化這些措施方面，已經(jīng)取得了進(jìn)展。但是，在逐步開(kāi)放資本項(xiàng)目的網(wǎng)時(shí)，必須進(jìn)一步加強(qiáng)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策，發(fā)展本國(guó)資本市場(chǎng)和市場(chǎng)監(jiān)管的相應(yīng)制度，建立一個(gè)有力的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系，應(yīng)對(duì)匯率制度更靈活、資本項(xiàng)目更開(kāi)放所帶來(lái)的需求。資本項(xiàng)目一旦開(kāi)放，就難以逆轉(zhuǎn)。重返資本管制應(yīng)該被看作最后的政策舉措，只是用來(lái)抑制匯率的過(guò)度波動(dòng)，或者是在利率和干預(yù)外匯市場(chǎng)等政策證明無(wú)效時(shí)，用來(lái)調(diào)節(jié)資本的大量流入。

　　雖然近年來(lái)在政策方面進(jìn)行了較大改進(jìn)，資本流動(dòng)的激增依然給發(fā)展中國(guó)家?guī)��?lái)了重大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。與過(guò)去遇到的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)有所不同，經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融穩(wěn)定今后面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)很可能改頭換面，也可能暴露出現(xiàn)在還無(wú)法預(yù)料的制度和宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)。可能出現(xiàn)麻煩的一個(gè)警報(bào)信號(hào)是，隨著證券投資流入的激增，許多發(fā)展中國(guó)家，尤其是亞洲的股票市場(chǎng)價(jià)格和估值大幅攀升，從而增加了資本價(jià)格出現(xiàn)泡沫的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。其它可能出現(xiàn)麻煩的跡象是，東歐一些國(guó)家的匯率升值，經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目赤字增加。如果幾種風(fēng)險(xiǎn)同時(shí)出現(xiàn)，則單個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的影響就會(huì)放大。

　　國(guó)際社會(huì)應(yīng)該繼續(xù)努力，推動(dòng)發(fā)展中國(guó)家的各項(xiàng)政策，以實(shí)現(xiàn)穩(wěn)定，保持一個(gè)有利于發(fā)展中國(guó)家以均衡的方式擴(kuò)大和利用資本流動(dòng)的金融環(huán)境。影響穩(wěn)定的一個(gè)主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是全球支付體系的不斷失衡，市場(chǎng)隨之會(huì)擔(dān)心失衡現(xiàn)象有可能帶來(lái)通過(guò)突然改變匯率和全球利率的無(wú)序調(diào)整。這種變化可能會(huì)造成國(guó)際金融市場(chǎng)的不穩(wěn)定和混亂，結(jié)果將給所有國(guó)家?guī)��?lái)不利影響。

　　雖然采取協(xié)調(diào)政策對(duì)外匯市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行干預(yù)既不可取，也不可行，但是要解決目前的全球失衡問(wèn)題，進(jìn)行一定程度的多邊合作還是必要的。這種做法基于逆差國(guó)和順差國(guó)的共同利益，應(yīng)該反映國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣和其它貨幣之間的結(jié)構(gòu)性不對(duì)稱。其核心問(wèn)題在于如何形成共識(shí)，采取綜合調(diào)整措施，重新平衡全球總需求，同時(shí)避免引發(fā)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。一般而言，關(guān)鍵國(guó)家之間進(jìn)行政策協(xié)調(diào)并無(wú)必要，因?yàn)楦��?dòng)匯率、配套的貨幣政策以及獨(dú)立的中央銀行等因素，都能夠針對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)所遭受的沖擊而進(jìn)行調(diào)整。然而，如果解決全球支付失衡的融資渠道的可持續(xù)性受到質(zhì)疑，正如當(dāng)前形勢(shì)一樣，那么開(kāi)展多邊合作，預(yù)防突然、無(wú)序的市場(chǎng)反應(yīng)，就是非�？扇〉呐e措，尤其是考慮到不斷增加的全球失衡給一些國(guó)家?guī)��?lái)了貿(mào)易保護(hù)主義政策的壓力。

　　對(duì)于發(fā)展中國(guó)家來(lái)說(shuō)，開(kāi)展多邊合作，它們尤其可以從中獲益良多;反之，則受損多多。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)不穩(wěn)定，全球金融失衡出現(xiàn)無(wú)序發(fā)展，這些國(guó)家就會(huì)遭到更巨大的重創(chuàng)。世界經(jīng)濟(jì)正在走向一個(gè)多極化的國(guó)際貨幣體系，其中美國(guó)、歐元區(qū)、日本以及包括中國(guó)在內(nèi)的幾個(gè)重要新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的貨幣和金融政策，都在發(fā)揮著重大影響。因此，新興市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的政策制定者應(yīng)該努力強(qiáng)化制度，推動(dòng)有利的政策機(jī)制，在世界金融和生產(chǎn)體系一體化程度和相互依存度越來(lái)越高的情況下，提高自身的參與能力。