U.S.job growth was surprisingly strong in 2018, but don’t expect that to happen
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The federal government’s final employment report for 2018 is forecast to show employers added 180,000 jobs in December to bring the annual increase to 2.45 million, the most since 2015 一 but the monthly estimate is the lowest median projection since last January.Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect that to slow in 2019 to an average monthly pace of 156,000, for a total of 1.87 million, followed by 1.44 million in 2020, when President Trump is up for reelection.
Other key labor measures aren’t expected to improve far beyond current levels by year end.Economists project the jobless rate held steady last month at 3.7%, the lowest since 1969, and will edge down to 3.5% at the end of 2019.Wage gains last month are expected to have eased to 3% year-over-year from a post-recession high of 3.1% and then modestly reaccelerate during the year.
The prospect of less-robust job growth is the latest in a slew of risks stacking up for the world’s largest economy.It comes alongside warning signs from housing and manufacturing, among other industries, and projected weakening in both U.S.and global growth this year.A waning boost from Trump ,s tax cuts and government spending will add to policymakers? challenges.
“The economy accelerated in 2018 and employment with it for a pretty simple and obvious reason: We had a pretty big fiscal stimulus,M said Lewis Alexander, chief U.S.economist at Nomura Securities International.“The boost to growth from fiscal policy is not sustainable” he said, adding that he expects slowing of the economic expansion and employment growth.
Data released Thursday by the ADP Research Institute indicated that companies in December added the most workers to U.S.payrolls in almost two years.Private payrolls grew by 271,000, exceeding forecasts, after a downward-revised 157,000 advance in November.A Labor Department report Thursday showed filings for unemployment benefits rose to a four-week high of 231,000 in the week that ended Dec.29, exceeding the median estimate of economists in Bloomberg’s survey.
Barclays sees payroll growth slowing from an average pace of about 200,000 a month last year to about 160,000 a month this year.“Our outlook for slower growth in activity in 2019 relative to last year on account of a smaller impulse from fiscal stimulus leads us to expect less employment growth this year,” chief U.S.economist Michael Gapen said in a note.The jobs report for November showed a payroll increase of 155,000, a tally that missed all estimates in Bloomberg’s survey calling for a gain of 198,000.The same report revised the October reading down to 237,000, from 250,000.
Maintaining strength in hiring may depend on continued contributions in key sectors such as manufacturing, which even before the December figures had added more jobs than any year since 1997.A Labor Department report due out Friday is forecast to show factory jobs rose by 20,000, which would bring the full-year increase to 269,000.Mining and natural resources jobs are within reach of their best gain since 2011, and construction is holding up.For private services jobs, more than half the 1.68 million hires on the books for 2018 have been in education and health services, and professional and business services.
Federal Reserve policymakers have stayed sanguine on the labor market, with Chairman Jerome Powell noting that increasing tightness should help keep inflation around the central bank’s 2% objective.Fed officials at their final 2018 meeting kept their end- of-2019 jobless rate forecast at 3.5%.
But as downbeat reports stack up, pressure increases on the Fed to signal a pause on interest-rate increases.Policymakers have said they intend to slow the pace of hikes this year.As they raised rates in December, they penciled in just two hikes for 2019, the median projection of governors and district presidents shows.That’s still more than many investors anticipate, with rate futures pointing to no moves in 2019 and a potential rate cut next year.
單選題第1題What’s the main idea of the passage?（）。
A.Economists forecast less job growth in America in 2019.
B.U.S.payrolls grew rapidly in 2018.
C.The U.S.jobless rate will keep steadily low in 2019.
D.Maintaining strength in job growth depends on key sectors.
參考答案：A
答案解析：主旨題。全文圍繞美國(guó)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的問(wèn)題展開(kāi)討論，用各種調(diào)查報(bào)告和數(shù)據(jù) 以及專家的觀點(diǎn)來(lái)佐證在未來(lái)一年增長(zhǎng)的勢(shì)頭會(huì)減弱，故正確答案為A。
單選題第2題What can we infer from the federal government’s employment report for 2018?（）。
A.The job growth was influenced strongly by economic headwinds.
B.The employees added 180,000 jobs in December.
C.Though the annual increase of jobs grew, the monthly projection kept low.
D.The annual increase of job positions had broken the record.
參考答案：C
答案解析：推斷題。從第2段第1句可知，聯(lián)邦政府2018年的最終就業(yè)報(bào)告顯示了12月 就業(yè)崗位的增長(zhǎng)，使年度增長(zhǎng)為2015年以來(lái)的最大增幅，但月度預(yù)測(cè)卻是去年1月 以來(lái)的最低中位數(shù)，故正確答案為C。
單選題第3題The lowest jobless rate since 1969 is ______.
A.3%
B.3.1%
C.3.5%
D.3.7%
參考答案：D
答案解析：細(xì)節(jié)題。第3段第2句，上個(gè)月失業(yè)率穩(wěn)定在3.7%，為1969年以來(lái)的最低水平，故正確答案為D。
單選題第4題What does the author possibly mean by using “a waning boost” underlined in Paragraph 4?（）。
A.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending can boost job growth.
B.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending can no longer give strong impetus to job growth.
C.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending have a striking effect on global growth.
D.Trump’s tax cuts and government spending will add strength to U.S.economy.
參考答案：B
答案解析：語(yǔ)義題。作者使用“a waning boost”意在表達(dá)特朗普的減稅政策和政府的開(kāi)銷對(duì)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的推動(dòng)力逐漸減弱，故正確答案為B。
單選題第5題According to Lewis Alexander, what’s the direct reason for employment increase in 2018?（）。
A.The economic expansion continues.
B.The employers created many job positions.
C.The U.S.government had favorable fiscal policy.
D.The global economy provides continuing support.
參考答案：C
答案解析：細(xì)節(jié)題。根據(jù)題干鎖定關(guān)鍵詞在第5段，Lewis Alexander明確指出就業(yè)增長(zhǎng) 的明顯原因是“我們有相當(dāng)大的財(cái)政刺激”，故正確答案為C。
單選題第6題The figure from a Labor Department report is cited in Paragraph 6 to ______.
A.show that the unemployment number is slightly lower than private payrolls
B.indicate that despite of the increase of U.S.payrolls, the unemployment rose
C.prove that people getting benefits from unemployment are more than those working for private companies
D.explain how many files they needed to deal with for unemployment benefits application
參考答案：B
答案解析：推斷題。定位關(guān)鍵詞在第6段第3句，結(jié)合上下文可知，勞工部的報(bào)告數(shù)據(jù)是為了指出，雖然就業(yè)人數(shù)增加了，但是申請(qǐng)失業(yè)救濟(jì)金的人數(shù)也創(chuàng)下新高，故正確答案為B。
單選題第7題Paragraph 7 attempts to show______.
A.the inaccuracy of Bloomberg’s survey
B.how slow the growth might be for the economic activities
C.the report should be revised in order to keep up with the situation
D.some authoritative opinions over this year’s employment growth
參考答案：D
答案解析：推斷題。第7段引用了Barclays的預(yù)測(cè)、經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家Michael Gapen的報(bào)告和11月份就業(yè)報(bào)告的數(shù)據(jù)，均為了證明一些權(quán) 威人士或機(jī)構(gòu)對(duì)今年就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的預(yù)測(cè)（增長(zhǎng)放緩），故正確答案為D。
單選題第8題Which of the following sectors CANNOT contribute much to strength in hiring?（）。
A.Agriculture.
B.Manufacturing.
C.Education.
D.Health service.
參考答案：A
答案解析：細(xì)節(jié)題。從第8段的內(nèi)容可知，保持就業(yè)的強(qiáng)勁勢(shì)頭取決于一些關(guān)鍵行業(yè)的 持續(xù)貢獻(xiàn)，未提及農(nóng)業(yè)，故正確答案為A。
單選題第9題______is similar in meaning to the underlined word “sanguine” in Paragraph 9.
A.Ruddy
B.Reddish
C.Optimistic
D.Passionate
參考答案：C
答案解析：語(yǔ)義題。“sanguine”在文中表示樂(lè)觀的意思，與C選項(xiàng)語(yǔ)義相近，故正確 答案為C。
單選題第10題What’s the author’s attitude towards U.S.job growth in 2019?（）。
A.Irony.
B.Indifferent.
C.Positive.
D.Negative.
參考答案：D
答案解析：態(tài)度題。作者在全文開(kāi)篇就用祈使句表明立場(chǎng)（…don’t expect that to happen again this year）,“that”指前文提到的美國(guó)就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭強(qiáng)勁，由此可見(jiàn)作者對(duì)美國(guó)2019年的就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)持不樂(lè)觀態(tài)度，故正確答案為D。
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