2017上半年P(guān)ETS5考試(wsk)模擬完整試題及答案（四）

　　Text 3

　　Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return?Since OPEC agreed to supply—cuts in March， the price of crude oil has jumped to almost$26 a barrel.up from less than$10 last December.This near—tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 0il shock，when prices quadrupled，and 1979—80，when they also almost tripled.Both previous shocks resulted in double—digit inflation and global economic decline.So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

　　The Oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports.Strengthening economic growth，at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere，could push the price higher still in the short term. Yet there ale good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the l970s.In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the l970s.In Europe，taxes account for up to four—fifths of the retail price，so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

　　Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were.and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation，a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy，energy—intensive industries has reduced oil consumption.Software.consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP(in constant prices)rich economies now use nearly 50%less oil than in 1973.The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that，its oil prices averaged$2 a barrel for a full year，compared with $13 in 1998,this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25—0.5%of GDP.That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 0r 1980.On the other hand，oil-importing emerging economies--to which heavy industry has shifted-have become more energy-intensive，and so could be more seriously squeezed.

　　One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that，unlike the rises in the 1970s，it has not oc— carred against the background of general commodity—price inflation and global excess demand.A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline.The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchang— ing from a year a90.In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%and in 1979 by almost 30%.

　　61.The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is_____.

　　[A]global inflation

　　[B]reduction in supply

　　[C]fast growth in economy

　　[D]Iraq’s suspension of exports

　　62.It call be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if_____.

　　[A]price of crude rises

　　[B]commodity prices rise

　　[C]consumption rises

　　[DJ oil taxes rise

　　63.The estimates in Economic Outllok show that in rich countries_____.

　　[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive

　　[B]income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices

　　[C]manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed

　　[D]oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP

　　64.We can draw a conclusion from the text that______.

　　[A]oil—price shocks are less shocking now

　　[B]inflation seems irrelevant to oil—price shocks

　　[C]energy conservation can keep down the oil prices

　　[D]the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry

　　65.From the text we can see that the writer seems_____.

　　[A]optimistic

　　[B]sensitive

　　[C]gloomy

　　[D]scared

　　Text 3

　　短文賞析

　　石油輸出國組織在3月份決定減少原油供應(yīng)，原油價格立即猛漲了3倍。本周伊拉克暫停石油出口，這使得油價又一次上揚(yáng)。強(qiáng)勁的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長勢頭，隨著北半球冬季的到來，有可能在短期內(nèi)使石油價格漲得更高。但是人們并不恐慌，這是因?yàn)楝F(xiàn)在多數(shù)國家的原油價格占汽油價格的份額要小很多，發(fā)達(dá)國家對石油的依賴性也不如從前，因此對油價的波動也就不會那么敏感了。另外一個原因是，與20世紀(jì)70年代不同，這次油價上升并不是發(fā)生在普遍的物價暴漲及全球需求過旺背景之下。

　　答案及解析

　　61.B 【解析】文章的第二句中“Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March，the price of crude oil has jumped to almost$26 a barrel，…”，說明油價上漲是由于石油輸出國組織最近的減少供應(yīng)導(dǎo)致的。故應(yīng)選B。

　　62.D【解析】文章第三段第二、三句“In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the l970s.In Europe….”指出原油價格只是汽油價格中的一小部分，以歐洲的例子說明稅收高達(dá)汽油零售價的五分之四，所以汽油稅上升會造成油價的大幅度上漲。故應(yīng)選D。

　　63.D【解析】文章第四段第五句“The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that.its oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year，...this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25—0.5%of GDP.”說明現(xiàn)在這種情況下，油價的上漲所帶來的影響只是在0.25—0.5%之間。這表明在富裕國家石油價格的變化不會對GDP(國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值)產(chǎn)生重大影響。故應(yīng)選D。

　　64.A【解析】文章第三段第一句話“Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the1970s.”表明這次的油價上漲不會像以前那樣帶來嚴(yán)重的后果。從文章最后一段“0ne more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that，…”來看，我們不會為石油價格的上漲而失眠，也說明了這次的上漲影響不會很大。故應(yīng)選A。

　　65.A【解析】文章第三段第一句“Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the l970s.”和第四段第一句都指出“Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were，and SO less sensitive to swings in the oil price.”也就是說各國有很好的理由盼望現(xiàn)在的經(jīng)濟(jì)前景會比二十世紀(jì)七十年代的情況樂觀。發(fā)達(dá)國家對石油的依賴性較以前有所下降，因而對石油價格變動的敏感度也降低，這些都表明作者是持有樂觀態(tài)度的。故應(yīng)選A。