After a brief flirtation with good cheer, US consumer confidence is on the back foot again.

在短暫樂觀情緒之后，美國消費者信心再次受到打擊。

The latest Forbes Advisor-Ipsos Consumer Confidence Biweekly Tracker dropped 4% from two weeks ago to 53.1. That’s a solid 7 points below its pre-pandemic level.

最 新的福布斯益普索消費者信心雙周追蹤調(diào)查顯示，消費者信心指數(shù)較兩周前下降4%至53.1，較疫情前水平下降了7個百分點。

The increased pessimism dovetails with the 63% of respondents who said that they believe inflation will go up in the near future.

消費者對美國經(jīng)濟愈加悲觀，63%的受訪者認為在不久的將來通脹將繼續(xù)上升。

“Inflation is on the top of everyone’s mind,” said Jason Gordo, managing director at Goldman Sachs Personal Financial Management. “We’re all buying food.”

高盛個人金融管理公司總經(jīng)理杰森·戈多稱：“所有人都非常關(guān)心通貨膨脹問題，因為我們都要購買食物。”

Given how hard it will be to tamp down price growth, consumers are likely to be in a sour mood for a long while.

考慮到抑制物價增長的難度，消費者的消極情緒可能會持續(xù)很長一段時間。

Weak Consumer Confidence Despite the Strong Jobs Market

就業(yè)市場強勁 消費者信心薄弱

American consumers are dissatisfied with their financial situation despite a robust job market.

盡管就業(yè)市場強勁，但美國消費者對自己的財務(wù)狀況并不滿意。

The jobs index of the Forbes Advisor-Ipsos survey held steady over the past two weeks, and remains well above its historical average.

福布斯益普索調(diào)查的就業(yè)指數(shù)在過去兩周保持穩(wěn)定，遠高于歷史平均水平。

That jibes with the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) jobs data, which reported an unemployment rate of 3.6% in March. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims have fallen to their lowest level since 1968.

這與美國勞工統(tǒng)計局最 新的就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)相符，該機構(gòu)報告3月份的失業(yè)率為3.6%。與此同時，首次申請失業(yè)救濟人數(shù)已降至1968年以來的最低水平。

But the survey’s current index, which gauges how people feel about their finances right now, dropped 4 points over the last two week, and is now more than 10 points lower than where it stood in March 2020.

但該調(diào)查的當前消費者信心指數(shù)(衡量人們目前對財務(wù)狀況的看法)在過去兩周下降了4個百分點，較2020年3月的水平降低了10個點以上。

The continuing impact of high inflation is the most likely candidate for the weaker current index. The most recent survey was conducted shortly after the March consumer price index (CPI) data, which showed annualized CPI inflation up 8.5%, another four-decade high.

當前指數(shù)走弱最可能是受到美國高通脹的持續(xù)影響。最近一次調(diào)查前不久發(fā)布了3月消費者價格指數(shù)(CPI)，該數(shù)據(jù)顯示，CPI年化通脹率上升8.5%，創(chuàng)下美國40年來歷史新高。

And while wages are seeing strong growth, they’re still being eroded by inflation. Real earnings—that is pay adjusted for the impact of annual inflation—dropped 2.7% from March 2021 to March 2022, per the BLS.

雖然工資增長強勁，但仍受到通貨膨脹的侵蝕。根據(jù)美國勞工統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)，從2021年3月到2022年3月的實際收入(即根據(jù)年度通貨膨脹的影響進行調(diào)整的薪酬)下降了2.7%。

Americans continue to see their purchasing power eroded by price increases. That means more consumers may now avoid the kinds of big-ticket purchases they had been making during the pandemic, especially as supply chain snarls continue to disrupt product availability.

美國民眾的購買力繼續(xù)被物價上漲所侵蝕。這意味著更多的消費者現(xiàn)在可能會避免在疫情期間購買高價商品，尤其是在供應(yīng)鏈混亂繼續(xù)擾亂產(chǎn)品供應(yīng)的情況下。

In fact, just 38% of survey respondents said they were more comfortable making a big purchase than they were six months ago, down six percentage points from the prior survey. That’s bad news for the US economy, and attitudes like these may be contributing to talk about the possibility of a renewed recession.

事實上，只有38%的受訪者表示，與六個月前相比，他們更愿意進行大額消費，較之前的調(diào)查下降了6個百分點。這對美國經(jīng)濟來說是個壞消息，像這樣的消費者情緒可能會讓人們擔心再次出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟衰退的可能性。

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