The new coronavirus is not an equal-opportunity killer:Being elderly and having other illnesses,for instance,greatly increases the risk of dying from the disease the virus causes,Covid-19.It's also possible being male could put you at increased risk.
新的冠狀病毒對各類人群的致命效果并不相同：比如老年人和患有其他疾病會有更大風險。男性相較于女性也會面臨更大的風險。
For both medical and public health reasons,researchers want to figure out who's most at risk of being infected and who's most at risk of developing severe or even lethal illness.With that kind of information,clinicians would know whom to treat more aggressively,government officials would have a better idea of steps to take,and everyone would know whether they need to take special,additional precautions.
出于醫(yī)學和公共衛(wèi)生方面的原因，研究人員希望找出誰最容易受到感染，以及誰最容易患上嚴重甚至致命的并發(fā)癥。有了這些信息，臨床醫(yī)生將知道應該給誰更積極的治療，政府官員該采取什么措施有更好的了解，每個人也清楚自己該做什么額外措施。
Here's what research has shown three months into the outbreak:
這是爆發(fā)三個月后的研究結(jié)果：
Old and young
老人與年輕人的比較
The vast majority of cases in China—87%—were in people ages 30 to 79,the China Center for Disease Control reported last month based on data from all 72,314 of those diagnosed with Covid-19 as of Feb.11.That probably reflects something about biology more than lifestyle,such as being in frequent contact with other people.Teens and people in their 20s also encounter many others,at school and work and on public transit,yet they don't seem to be contracting the disease at significant rates:Only 8.1%of cases were 20-somethings,1.2%were teens,and 0.9%were 9 or younger.The World Health Organization mission to China found that 78%of the cases reported as of Feb.20 were in people ages 30 to 69.
中國疾病控制中心上個月根據(jù)截至2月11日被診斷出患有新冠肺炎的所有72,314名患者的數(shù)據(jù)，報告了中國絕大多數(shù)病例(87%)，年齡在30至79歲之間。與此相關(guān)的不只是生活方式，例如與他人經(jīng)常接觸。十幾歲和20多歲的人在學校，工作場所和公共交通上也接觸了很多其他人，但他們似乎并沒有以很高的比率感染這種疾病：只有8.1%的病例是20多歲的年輕人，1.2%是十幾歲，9歲以下的占0.9%。世界衛(wèi)生組織駐中國代表團發(fā)現(xiàn)，截至2月20日，報告的病例中有78%的患者年齡在30至69歲之間。
The death toll skews old even more strongly.Overall,China CDC found,2.3%of confirmed cases died.But the fatality rate was 14.8%in people 80 or older,likely reflecting the presence of other diseases,a weaker immune system,or simply worse overall health.By contrast,the fatality rate was 1.3%in 50-somethings,0.4%in 40-somethings,and 0.2%in people 10 to 39.
死亡人數(shù)更嚴重地傾斜于老年人�？傮w而言，中國疾控中心發(fā)現(xiàn)，確診病例中有2.3%死亡。但是，在80歲或80歲以上的人群中，死亡率為14.8%，這可能反映出存在其他疾病，免疫系統(tǒng)較弱或整體健康狀況較差的原因。相比之下，死亡率在50歲以下人群中為1.3%，在40歲以上人群中為0.4%，在10至39歲的人群中為0.2%。
The age-related death risk probably reflects the strength,or weakness,of the respiratory system.About half of the 109 Covid-19 patients(ages 22 to 94)treated at Central Hospital of Wuhan,researchers there reported,developed acute respiratory distress syndrome(ARDS),in which fluid builds up in the small air sacs of the lungs.That restricts how much air the lungs can take in,reducing the oxygen supply to vital organs,sometimes fatally;half of the ARDS patients died,compared to 9%of patients who did not develop the syndrome.
與年齡有關(guān)的死亡風險可能反映了呼吸系統(tǒng)的強弱。在武漢市中心醫(yī)院接受治療的109名患者(22至94歲)中，約有一半發(fā)展為急性呼吸窘迫綜合癥(ARDS)，液體積聚在肺小氣囊中。這就限制了肺吸收氧氣，從而減少了對重要器官的供氧，有時甚至致命。一半的ARDS患者死亡，而沒有發(fā)展為ARDS的患者占9%。
The ARDS patients had an average age of 61,compared to an average age of 49 for those who did not develop ARDS.Elderly patients“were more likely to develop ARDS,”the researchers wrote,suggesting how age can make Covid-19 more severe and even fatal:age increases the risk that the respiratory system will basically shut down under viral assault.
ARDS患者的平均年齡為61歲，而未患ARDS的患者的平均年齡為49歲。研究人員寫道，老年患者“更有可能患ARDS，”這表明年齡如何使新冠肺炎更嚴重甚至致命：年齡增加了在病毒襲擊下呼吸系統(tǒng)癱瘓的風險。
Youth,in contrast,seems to be protective.The WHO mission reported a relatively low incidence in people under 18,who made up only 2.4%of all reported cases.In fact,through mid-January,zero children in Wuhan,the epicenter of the outbreak,had contracted Covid-19.It's not clear whether that's because children do not show signs of illness even if infected.
相反，年輕人似乎是受到保護的。世衛(wèi)組織訪問團報告說，18歲以下人群的發(fā)病率相對較低，僅占所有報告病例的2.4%。實際上，到1月中旬為止，在武漢(暴發(fā)中心)沒有兒童感染了Covid-19。尚不清楚這是否是因為兒童即使被感染也沒有表現(xiàn)出疾病跡象。
Even cases among children and teens aged 10 to 19 are rare.As of Feb.11 there were 549 cases in that age group,1.2%of the total,China CDC found.Only one had died.
甚至10至19歲的兒童和青少年中的病例也很少見。中國疾病預防控制中心發(fā)現(xiàn)，截至2月11日，該年齡組有549例，占總數(shù)的1.2%。只有一個人死亡。
One intriguing explanation for the apparent resilience of youth:in regions near Hubei province,young children seem especially likely to be exposed to other coronaviruses,scientists in China reported in 2018.That might have given them at least partial immunity to this one.
據(jù)中國科學家在2018年報道：年輕人的抵抗力的一個有趣的解釋是：在湖北省附近的地區(qū)，年幼的孩子似乎特別有可能暴露于其他冠狀病毒。這可能使他們已經(jīng)免疫了部分的冠狀病毒。
Men and women
男性女性之間的比較
The effect of sex on susceptibility to Covid-19 is less clear than the age effect,but preliminary data suggest men might be more susceptible.China CDC found that 106 men had the disease for every 100 women,while the WHO mission found that men make up 51%of cases.A study of 1,099 Covid-19 patients in Wuhan through Jan.29 found a greater imbalance:58%were male,the China Medical Treatment Expert Group for Covid-19 reported last week in the New England Journal of Medicine.
性別對Covid-19易感性的影響尚不及年齡影響明確，但初步數(shù)據(jù)表明，男性可能更易感。中國疾病預防控制中心發(fā)現(xiàn)，每100名女性就有對應106名男性患該病，而世界衛(wèi)生組織的訪問發(fā)現(xiàn)，男性占該病的51%。截至1月29日，對武漢地區(qū)1,099名Covid-19患者的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)了更大的失衡：58%是男性，來源于上周《新英格蘭醫(yī)學雜志》Covid-19中國醫(yī)學治療專家組。
It's possible the apparent sex imbalance reflects patterns of travel and contacts that make men more likely to be exposed to carriers of the virus,not any inherent biological differences.It's also possible the apparent worse disease severity in men could skew the data.Among hospitalized patients,there is“a slight predominance of men,”U.S.researchers wrote last week in JAMA.If the virus hits men harder than women,health care systems will see,test,and count more men.
這種明顯的性別失衡可能反映了出行和接觸的模式，這些模式使男性更容易接觸到病毒攜帶者，而不是任何內(nèi)在的生物學差異。男性明顯的疾病嚴重程度也有可能扭曲數(shù)據(jù)。美國研究人員上周在《美國醫(yī)學會雜志》(JAMA)上寫道，在住院病人中，“男性略多于女性”。如果該病毒對男性的感染影響大于女性，那么衛(wèi)生保健系統(tǒng)將對更多的男性進行觀察、檢測和統(tǒng)計。
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