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　　Japan's once enviable jobless rate will soar to double-digit levels if—and the warning is a big one—firms opt for drastic Western-style layoffs to boost profits. While Japan's life-time employment system is visibly unravelling, many economists still doubt whether a scenario of soaring joblessness will occur, given that economic incentives to slash payrolls clash with social and political pressures to save jobs. A kinder, gentler approach to restructuring would soften the social instability many fear would result from doubling the jobless rate, already at a record high.

　　Critics believe it would also cap gains in profit margins and stifle economic vitality, especially in the absence of bold steps to open the door to new growth, industries. Some economists believe different methods of counting mean Japan's jobless rate is already close to 7 per cent by United States standards, not that far from the 7.8 per cent peak hit in the US in 1992 when it began to emerge from a two-year slump.

　　【參考譯文】

　　如果日本各公司效仿西方國家，通過大幅度裁員來增加利潤，日本一度令人羨慕的低失業(yè)率將飆升至兩位數(shù), 目前形式已經(jīng)十分嚴(yán)峻。日本的終生雇傭制度明顯正在解體, 但是刺激經(jīng)濟需要裁員, 而社會和政治上卻要求保留工作崗位，兩者互相沖突，因而許多經(jīng)濟學(xué)家仍無法斷定日本是否會出現(xiàn)失業(yè)率急劇上升的局面。許多人擔(dān)心失業(yè)率已經(jīng)達到歷史最高點，如果再增長一倍，就會導(dǎo)致社會不安定，因而以較為溫和的方式調(diào)整經(jīng)濟,才可以緩解這個問題。評論家們認為這還會限制利潤增長，抑制經(jīng)濟活力，如果不去大膽采取措施引進增長型產(chǎn)業(yè)，情況會更糟。一些經(jīng)濟學(xué)家認為，用不同的方法計算，按照美國標(biāo)準(zhǔn)，日本的失業(yè)率已接近7%，與1992年美國7.8%的最高失業(yè)率相去不遠，而當(dāng)時美國已開始走出兩年的經(jīng)濟衰退期。

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