Building a More Resilient and Inclusive Global Economy

　　建立一個(gè)更具韌性和包容性的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)

　　Christine Lagarde, IMF Managing Director

　　國(guó)際貨幣基金組織總裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德

　　Bruegel

　　布勒哲爾研究所

　　April 12, 2017

　　2017年4月12日

　　Thank you, Jean-Claude Trichet and Guntram Wolff, for your kind introductions. And thank you to Bruegel for hosting this event here at the wonderful Bibliothèque Solvay.

　　感謝讓-克勞德·特里謝和甘特拉姆·沃爾夫的熱情介紹。同時(shí)，還要感謝布勒哲爾研究所選擇在美麗的索韋圖書(shū)館主辦這次會(huì)議。

　　As I experience this beautiful building, it reminds me that good architecture is not about geometry or design in the first instance – it is about fostering human relationships in private and in public spaces.

　　置身于這座精美的建筑，我聯(lián)想到，好的建筑首先不在于它的幾何結(jié)構(gòu)或設(shè)計(jì)形式，而在于促進(jìn)私人和公共空間內(nèi)的人際關(guān)系。

　　I hear about this often from my son who is an architect – and I also thought about it when reading about the Pritzker Prize – the “Nobel prize” of architecture.

　　我常常聽(tīng)我兒子說(shuō)起這一點(diǎn)，他是一名建筑師;而且，我在讀到建筑界的“諾貝爾獎(jiǎng)”——普利茲克建筑獎(jiǎng)的相關(guān)消息時(shí)也曾琢磨了一番。

　　Last month, when a little-known firm in Catalonia was announced as the winner of this year’s prize, the jury said:

　　上個(gè)月，當(dāng)宣布加泰羅尼亞一家不知名的公司獲得了今年的普利茲克建筑獎(jiǎng)時(shí)，評(píng)獎(jiǎng)團(tuán)指出：

　　“More and more people fear that because of international influence, we will lose our local values, our local art, and our local customs. The prize winners help us to see that we can aspire to have both – our roots firmly in place and our arms outstretched to the rest of the world.”

　　“越來(lái)越多的人害怕我們會(huì)由于國(guó)際影響而喪失自己的本土價(jià)值觀(guān)、自己的本土藝術(shù)以及自己的地方習(xí)俗。這幾位獲獎(jiǎng)?wù)邘椭�我們認(rèn)識(shí)到，兩方面 的追求可以并行不�！�—在深深扎根于本土的同時(shí)，向世界的其他地方張開(kāi)懷抱�！�

　　Being concerned with the global economic and financial architecture, we should take inspiration from this statement.

　　我們既然關(guān)注全球經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融的架構(gòu)，就理應(yīng)從上述言論中獲得啟迪。

　　We are at a moment where the global economy needs both – a foundation of sound domestic policies combined with a steadfast commitment to international cooperation.

　　當(dāng)今時(shí)代，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)同時(shí)有兩方面的需要——既需要建立穩(wěn)健的國(guó)內(nèi)政策基礎(chǔ)，又需要堅(jiān)定致力于開(kāi)展國(guó)際合作。

　　We need these two elements – the domestic as well as the international – to create a more resilient global economy with sustainable, more durable, and more inclusive growth.

　　我們需要利用上述國(guó)內(nèi)和國(guó)際兩方面因素，創(chuàng)建一個(gè)韌性更強(qiáng)的全球經(jīng)濟(jì)，同時(shí)形成可持續(xù)、更持久、更包容的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)。

　　Outlook

　　前景

　　The good news is that, after six years of disappointing growth, the world economy is gaining momentum as a cyclical recovery holds out the promise of more jobs, higher incomes, and greater prosperity going forward.

　　眼下的好消息是，經(jīng)過(guò)六年令人失望的增長(zhǎng)后，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)勢(shì)頭正在加強(qiáng)，周期性復(fù)蘇帶來(lái)了今后就業(yè)機(jī)會(huì)增加、收入水平上升、繁榮程度提高的希望。

　　But just as we see this momentum unfolding, we also see – at least in some advanced economies – doubts about the benefits of economic integration, about the very “architecture” that has underpinned the world economy for more than seven decades.

　　但是，隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)勢(shì)頭加強(qiáng)，我們也看到，至少在某些發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體，存在著對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化的惠益的懷疑，存在著對(duì)七十多年來(lái)支撐世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的“建筑”本身的懷疑。

　　These issues will be on the minds of finance ministers and central bankers from the IMF’s 189 member countries when they meet in Washington next week for our Spring Meetings.

　　當(dāng)基金組織189個(gè)成員國(guó)的財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)和央行行長(zhǎng)下周齊聚華盛頓出席我們的春季會(huì)議時(shí)，這些問(wèn)題將成為他們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。

　　They will assess the state of the global economy and, as usual, we will release our World Economic Outlook a few days before the meeting. Today, I will touch on some broad trends.

　　他們將對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況作出評(píng)估，而我們也將照例在會(huì)議前幾天發(fā)布《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)展望》。今天，我將談一談若干基本趨勢(shì)。

　　For advanced economies, the outlook has improved with stronger manufacturing activity. This upswing is broad-based across countries – including in Europe – although some countries here still face high debt and weaknesses in some banks.

　　發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體前景向好，原因在于制造業(yè)活動(dòng)增強(qiáng)。經(jīng)濟(jì)前景的改善在各國(guó)(包括歐洲國(guó)家)不乏廣泛的基礎(chǔ)，盡管一些國(guó)家仍然面臨債務(wù)高企和部分銀行薄弱的問(wèn)題。

　　The prospects for emerging and developing economies also bode well for global growth. These countries have driven the global recovery in recent years, and they will continue to contribute more than three-quarters of global GDP growth in 2017.

　　新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體的前景也有利于全球增長(zhǎng)。這些國(guó)家最近幾年推動(dòng)了全球復(fù)蘇，2017年它們將繼續(xù)占全球GDP增長(zhǎng)的四分之三以上。

　　Meanwhile, higher commodity prices have brought relief to many low-income countries. However, these economies still face difficult challenges, including revenue levels that are projected to stay well below the boom years.

　　同時(shí)，大宗商品價(jià)格的上漲緩解了許多低收入國(guó)家的困難狀況。然而，這些經(jīng)濟(jì)體仍舊面臨著諸多嚴(yán)峻挑戰(zhàn)，比如財(cái)政收入預(yù)計(jì)將遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)低于經(jīng)濟(jì)快速增長(zhǎng)年份的水平。

　　Putting all this together, we see a global economy that has a spring in its step – benefiting from sound policy choices in many countries in recent years.

　　綜合上述各方面因素可以看出，全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的腳步充滿(mǎn)活力，這得益于許多國(guó)家近年來(lái)實(shí)施的穩(wěn)健政策。

　　Risks

　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

　　At the same time, there are clear downside risks: political uncertainty, including in Europe; the sword of protectionism hanging over global trade; and tighter global financial conditions that could trigger disruptive capital outflows from emerging and developing economies.

　　然而，目前顯然也存在著一些下行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：政治上的不確定性，包括在歐洲;全球貿(mào)易受到保護(hù)主義威脅;以及全球金融環(huán)境趨緊，這可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致新興和發(fā)展中經(jīng)濟(jì)體出現(xiàn)破壞性的資本外流。

　　And underneath those short-term issues lies a weak productivity trend that continues to be a severe drag on strong and inclusive growth – largely because of population aging, the slowdown in trade, and weak private investment since the 2008 financial crisis.

　　這些短期問(wèn)題的根源在于生產(chǎn)率增長(zhǎng)疲軟，這一趨勢(shì)繼續(xù)對(duì)強(qiáng)有力的包容性增長(zhǎng)造成嚴(yán)重阻礙——很大程度上是因?yàn)樽?008年金融危機(jī)以來(lái)出現(xiàn)的人口老齡化、 貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)放緩以及私人投資疲弱等問(wèn)題。

　　We estimate that, if productivity growth had followed its pre-2008 crisis trend, overall GDP in advanced economies would be about 5 percent higher today. That would be the equivalent of adding a country with an output larger than Germany to the global economy.

　　我們估計(jì)，如果生產(chǎn)率按照2008年危機(jī)前的趨勢(shì)增長(zhǎng)，那么發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體的總體GDP將比目前的水平大約高出5%。相當(dāng)于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中又增加了一個(gè)產(chǎn)出大于德國(guó)的國(guó)家。

　　Policies

　　政策

　　This suggests that there is no room for complacency when it comes to economic policies.

　　這表明，就經(jīng)濟(jì)政策而言，我們沒(méi)有理由沾沾自喜。

　　We need to build on the policies that have delivered so much for the world. And at the same time, we must avoid policy missteps – or as I have described them, “self-inflicted wounds.”

　　我們需要利用那些已經(jīng)對(duì)世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)揮了重大作用的各項(xiàng)政策。與此同時(shí)，我們必須避免種種政策失誤，也就是我所說(shuō)的那些“自討苦吃”的行為。

　　How do we do this? I see three dimensions of economic policies:

　　我們?cè)撛趺醋?我認(rèn)為應(yīng)當(dāng)從經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的三個(gè)方面入手：

　　Supporting growth, with an emphasis on productivity;

　　支持增長(zhǎng)，強(qiáng)調(diào)生產(chǎn)率;

　　Sharing the benefits more equitably; and

　　更加公平地分享收益;

　　Cooperating across borders through a multilateral framework that has served the world well.

　　通過(guò)已經(jīng)有效服務(wù)于世界的多邊框架，開(kāi)展跨境合作。