人社廳公布“關(guān)于2021年度專業(yè)技術(shù)人員職業(yè)資格考試工作計劃及有關(guān)事項的通知”，翻譯資格考試上半年考試在6月19、20日，考試形式為電子化考試(即機考)。

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　　Five market axioms that can no longer be relied upon

　　不再靠譜的5個投資假設(shè)

　　Investors will have to grapple with once-unthinkable economic and market trends as they set about fine-tuning their portfolios next year. Where they end up will depend on five factors that are growing less stable by the day.

　　投資者在明年著手調(diào)整投資組合時，將不得不應(yīng)對曾經(jīng)無法想象的經(jīng)濟和市場趨勢。他們最終如何配置資產(chǎn)，將取決于日趨不穩(wěn)定的五個因素。

　　Market sentiment has improved in recent weeks as trade tensions between China and the US have de-escalated, while the US labour market has again outperformed expectations — and there are short-term signs of some bottoming out of Europe’s economic cycle. With that, US stock indices have reached new highs while both bonds and currency markets have been relatively calm.

　　近幾周來，隨著中美貿(mào)易緊張緩解，市場情緒有所改善，同時美國勞動力市場的表現(xiàn)再次超出預(yù)期，還有短期跡象表明，歐洲經(jīng)濟周期在一定程度上觸底反彈。于是，美國股指創(chuàng)下新高，而債券和匯率市場相對平穩(wěn)。

　　Whether this performance will hold beyond the short term requires the revival of five assumptions that underpin most longstanding investment approaches.

　　這種表現(xiàn)能否延續(xù)至超越短期時間框架，將需要長期支撐大多數(shù)投資思路的5個假設(shè)恢復(fù)生命力。

　　First, that globalisation carries on expanding markets and delivering efficiency gains. Second, that emerging economies will continue to catch up with their more developed counterparts, led by those pursuing reforms. Third, that robust liquidity will anchor well-functioning markets. Fourth, that policy effectiveness in developed markets will limit the global economy’s “downside”. And finally, that politics and governance will support market-based systems and the global rule of law.

　　首先，全球化繼續(xù)讓市場擴大并提高效率。第二，新興經(jīng)濟體將繼續(xù)追趕那些較為發(fā)達的經(jīng)濟體，領(lǐng)跑的是那些推行改革的新興經(jīng)濟體。第三，強勁的流動性將支撐運作良好的市場。第四，發(fā)達市場的政策有效性將限制全球經(jīng)濟的下行風(fēng)險。最后，政治和治理將支持基于市場的體系和全球法治。

　　Each tenet is subject to considerable uncertainty, adding to the need to review medium-term investment approaches on account of accelerating technological innovations, climate change and demographic trends.

　　上述每個假設(shè)都面臨相當(dāng)大的不確定性，同時鑒于技術(shù)創(chuàng)新加快、氣候變化和人口結(jié)構(gòu)趨勢，人們更有必要審視中期投資思路。

　　Notwithstanding the easing in trade tensions, it is far from clear that the process of economic and financial globalisation will continue. The possibility of years of deglobalisation — where barriers reduce the free flow of trade and investment — remains substantial. National politics are becoming more inward-looking by the day, growth continues to disappoint, and the inequalities of income, wealth and opportunities fuel popular backlashes.

　　雖然貿(mào)易緊張局勢有所緩和，但對于經(jīng)濟和金融全球化進程會否持續(xù)，前景遠非清晰。去全球化持續(xù)多年——其間各種貿(mào)易障礙減少貿(mào)易和投資的自由流動——的可能性仍然很大。如今，國家政治變得日益內(nèi)向，增長繼續(xù)令人失望，而收入、財富和機會的不平等狀況助燃民眾反彈。

　　This process of deglobalisation limits the scope for emerging countries to use the international economy to turbocharge their development efforts. It also increases the risk of dislocations for a financial system that is built for deeper cross-border connectivity.

　　這種去全球化進程限制了新興國家利用國際經(jīng)濟加速其發(fā)展努力的余地。它也加大了為深化跨境連通性而打造的金融體系發(fā)生錯位的風(fēng)險。

　　At a time when the “circuit breaker” effectiveness of central banks is waning after too many years of excessive reliance on unconventional monetary measures, this increases the likelihood of poor economics swaying politics and, in return, messier politics contaminating economics. This phenomenon has already been amply illustrated not only in advanced countries (eg Brexit), but also via spillovers to some emerging economies.

　　央行多年來過度依賴非常規(guī)貨幣措施，導(dǎo)致其作為“斷路器”的有效性逐漸減弱，這增加了糟糕經(jīng)濟狀況影響政治的可能性，而反過來，更混亂的政治也會搞亂經(jīng)濟。這種現(xiàn)象不僅已經(jīng)在發(fā)達國家(例如英國退歐)中得到充分展示，而且還體現(xiàn)于對某些新興經(jīng)濟體產(chǎn)生的溢出效應(yīng)。

　　Away from traditional savings, the implied distortions to finance have so far favoured investors. Witness what has happened to three factors that drive most asset allocation models: returns, correlations and volatility.

　　除了傳統(tǒng)的儲蓄之外，對金融的隱含扭曲迄今有利于投資者�？纯打�(qū)動大多數(shù)資產(chǎn)配置模型的三個因素——回報率、關(guān)聯(lián)度和波動性——發(fā)生了什么。

　　The traditional-inverse relationship between the prices of German and US government bonds (“risk-free” assets) and those of stocks (riskier assets) has been turned on its head for much of this year. The result is not only actual or near-record highs for key equity indices but also, with bond prices still relatively high, some $12tn of debt trading at negative yields.

　　在今年大部分時間里，德國和美國政府債券(“無風(fēng)險”資產(chǎn))價格與股票(較高風(fēng)險資產(chǎn))價格之間的傳統(tǒng)反向關(guān)系被扭轉(zhuǎn)。結(jié)果不僅是關(guān)鍵股指達到或逼近紀錄高位，而且由于債券價格仍然相對較高，約有12萬億美元債券的收益率是負值。

　　It has also played out in the volatility space, where unusually subdued levels have tended to be the norm, encouraging even more risk-taking. And when we have had “illiquidity in the midst of liquidity” — to use the words of Robert Koenigsberger, the CIO of hedge fund Gramercy — it has tended to be contained. The one major exception to this was the market disruption a year ago that caused the Federal Reserve policy U-turn at the beginning of 2019.

　　這也體現(xiàn)在波動性方面——異常低的波動水平近來成為常態(tài)，鼓勵了甚至更多的冒險。當(dāng)我們遇到“流動性當(dāng)中的流動性不足”時——這是對沖基金Gramercy的首 席投資官羅伯特•科尼格斯伯格(Robert Koenigsberger)說的話——它往往會受到遏制。一個重大例外是一年前發(fā)生的市場動蕩，它導(dǎo)致美聯(lián)儲(Federal Reserve)在2019年初政策大轉(zhuǎn)向。

　　Given valuations and volatility levels, investors face increasingly asymmetrical risks, where there is a wide gap between their potential gains and losses. They would be well advised to test their longer-term investment approaches for adverse and unstable asset class correlations, volatility spikes, liquidity dislocations and greater political risks.

　　考慮到估值和波動水平，投資者面臨日益不對稱的風(fēng)險——他們的潛在回報和損失之間存在巨大差距。他們最好測試自己的較長期投資方法，考慮不利和不穩(wěn)定的資產(chǎn)類別關(guān)聯(lián)度、波動性突然飆升、流動性錯位以及更大的政治風(fēng)險。

　　Conditions now call for a bigger longer-term move to investing based on “factors”, which are disaggregated drivers of asset prices, and some tail hedging (protecting your portfolio against big adverse market moves), with more input for behavioural science and political analysis.

　　現(xiàn)在的情況要求以更大幅度和更長期的時間跨度轉(zhuǎn)向基于“因素”(資產(chǎn)價格的分散驅(qū)動因素)的投資，再加上一些尾部對沖(保護你的投資組合免受重大不利市場變動的影響)，以及行為科學(xué)和政治分析方面的更多輸入。

　　Investors could consider a gradual move to asset allocations that involve a further shift away from public stocks and bonds to bespoke credit structures and other ways of gaining more direct access to real economic activity. With that, cash may play a larger structural role in mitigating risks.

　　投資者可以考慮逐步調(diào)整資產(chǎn)配置，包括進一步從公開上市股票和債券轉(zhuǎn)向定制信貸結(jié)構(gòu)，以及其他更直接參與實體經(jīng)濟活動的方法。因此，現(xiàn)金可能在緩解風(fēng)險方面發(fā)揮更大的結(jié)構(gòu)性作用。

　　Most investment approaches are not wired for a world of deglobalisation, non-convergence of emerging economies, rising illiquidity, ineffective monetary policy and less respect for the global rule of law. Yet the possibility of each has increased.

　　大多數(shù)投資方法不適用于一個去全球化的世界，在這個世界里，新興經(jīng)濟體不再趨同、流動性日益緊張、貨幣政策無效，全球法治不太受尊重。然而這些可能性都有所加大。

　　It would be unwise to just throw out longstanding investment approaches that have served investors well. But it would be equally unwise to avoid difficult discussions on how to evolve them, given that so many economic, financial and political “unthinkables” have already become facts.

　　就這么拋棄為投資者帶來豐厚回報的長期投資方法是不明智的。但是，鑒于許多“無法想象的”經(jīng)濟、金融和政治事件已經(jīng)成為事實，回避就如何發(fā)展投資方法進行艱難討論同樣是不明智的。

　　　考后關(guān)注：2021上半年翻譯資格考試成績查詢時間  合格標(biāo)準(zhǔn)  2021上半年CATTI考后資格審核時間及地區(qū)

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