Technology and society
科技與社會
Pessimism v progress
悲觀VS發(fā)展
Faster, cheaper, better—technology is onefield many people rely upon to offer a vision of a brighter future. But as the2020s dawn, optimism is in short supply.
更快、更低價(jià)、更好的技術(shù)為許多人勾勒出一個美好明天的愿景。但在21世紀(jì)20年代即將到來之際，人們卻很難保持樂觀。
Today’s gloomy mood is centred on smartphonesand social media, which took off a decade ago. Yet concerns that humanity hastaken a technological wrong turn, or that particular technologies might bedoing more harm than good, have arisen before.
如今，人們對科技的悲觀情緒主要源自于十年前開始興起的智能手機(jī)和社交媒體。然而，在此之前就曾出現(xiàn)過有關(guān)人類點(diǎn)錯了科技樹或是某些技術(shù)可能弊大于利的擔(dān)憂。
In the 1970s the despondency was promptedby concerns about overpopulation, environmental damage and the prospect ofnuclear immolation.
上世紀(jì)70年代，對人口過剩、環(huán)境破壞和核毀滅前景的擔(dān)憂就曾使人們意志消沉。
The 1920s witnessed a backlash againstcars, which had earlier been seen as a miraculous answer to the affliction ofhorse-drawn vehicles—which filled the streets with noise and dung, and causedcongestion and accidents.
上世紀(jì)20年代也曾發(fā)生過一場抵制汽車的運(yùn)動，而在此之前，汽車曾一度被視為是解決了馬車?yán)_(在馬車時代，街道嘈雜紛亂、糞便遍地，堵車和交通事故也是常有之事)的奇跡般的發(fā)明。
And the blight of industrialisation wasdecried in the 19th century by Luddites, Romantics and socialists, who worried(with good reason) about the displacement of skilled artisans, the despoilingof the countryside and the suffering of factory hands toiling in smoke-belchingmills.
19世紀(jì)，盧德主義者、浪漫主義者和社會主義者紛紛譴責(zé)工業(yè)化所帶來的禍患，他們(有充分的理由)擔(dān)憂熟練技工被機(jī)器所取代、鄉(xiāng)村遭到工廠的破壞，以及濃煙滾滾的工廠里的工人勞苦艱辛。
Stand back, and in each of these historicalcases disappointment arose from a mix of unrealised hopes and unforeseenconsequences.
退一步來看，在這每一個歷史實(shí)例中，人們的失望情緒都源自于未實(shí)現(xiàn)的期望和未預(yù)見的后果。
Technology unleashes the forces of creativedestruction, so it is only natural that it leads to anxiety; for any giventechnology its drawbacks sometimes seem to outweigh its benefits. When thishappens with several technologies at once, as today, the result is a widersense of techno-pessimism.
技術(shù)釋放出了創(chuàng)造性破壞的力量，因此自然會導(dǎo)致焦慮;任何一項(xiàng)技術(shù)都會有看似弊大于利的時候。而當(dāng)數(shù)項(xiàng)技術(shù)同時出現(xiàn)這種情況時，就如同今天這樣，將會導(dǎo)致科技悲觀情緒的普遍存在。
However, that pessimism can be overdone.Too often people focus on the drawbacks of a new technology while taking itsbenefits for granted. Worries about screen time should be weighed against themuch more substantial benefits of ubiquitous communication and the instantaccess to information and entertainment that smartphones make possible.
然而，或許有點(diǎn)悲觀過頭了。人們往往過于關(guān)注一項(xiàng)新技術(shù)的缺點(diǎn)，但卻視其優(yōu)點(diǎn)為理所當(dāng)然。人們在擔(dān)心智能手機(jī)過度使用的同時也應(yīng)該看到它所帶來的實(shí)質(zhì)性的好處(隨處可通訊以及即時獲取信息和娛樂)。
A further danger is that Luddite efforts toavoid the short-term costs associated with a new technology will end up denyingaccess to its long-term benefits—something Carl Benedikt Frey, an Oxfordacademic, calls a “technology trap”.
盧德主義者為避免新技術(shù)所產(chǎn)生的短期成本而做的努力最終將損害新技術(shù)的長期利益，這將導(dǎo)致更深層次的危害，牛津大學(xué)學(xué)者卡爾將其稱之為“技術(shù)陷阱”。
Fears that robots will steal people’s jobsmay prompt politicians to tax them, for example, to discourage their use. Yetin the long run countries that wish to maintain their standard of living astheir workforce ages and shrinks will need more robots, not fewer.
人們擔(dān)心機(jī)器人會搶走飯碗，這或?qū)⒋偈拐蛡儾扇±缯鞫惖拇胧﹣碜柚箼C(jī)器人的使用。然而，從長遠(yuǎn)來看，隨著勞動力的老齡化以及數(shù)量的減縮，各國如果想要維持原有的生活水平就需要更多而非更少的機(jī)器人。
注：雙語全文源自經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人
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