The internet’s next act
互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的下一幕
You ain’t seen nothing yet
好戲在后頭
The second half of humanity is joining the internet. They will change it, and it will change them
地球另一半人口正在接入互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。他們會改變互聯(lián)網(wǎng)，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)也會改變他們
IN 2007 MORE humans lived in cities than outside them for the first time. It was a transition 5,000 years in the making. The internet has been quicker to reach the halfway mark. Over 50% of the planet’s population is now online, a mere quarter of a century after the web first took off among tech-savvy types in the West. The second half of the internet revolution has begun. It is changing how society works—and also creating a new business puzzle.
地球上住在城市里的人數(shù)在2007年首次超過了住在城市外的人數(shù)。這一轉(zhuǎn)變歷時五千年�；ヂ�(lián)網(wǎng)達(dá)到“過半”目標(biāo)的速度要快得多。超過50%的地球人口現(xiàn)在都已聯(lián)網(wǎng)，這距離網(wǎng)絡(luò)在西方國家的科技發(fā)燒友中首先流行起來不過25年�；ヂ�(lián)網(wǎng)革命的后半段已經(jīng)開始。它正在改變社會的運作方式，同時帶來一個新的商業(yè)謎題。
Most new users are in the emerging world; some 726m people came online in the past three years alone. China is still growing fast. But much of the rise is coming from poorer places, notably India and Africa. Having seen what fake news and trolling has done to public discourse in rich countries, many observers worry about politics being debased, from the polarisation of India’s electorate to the persecution of Myanmar’s Rohingya minority. On the positive side, charities and aid workers talk endlessly and earnestly about how smartphones will allow farmers to check crop prices, let villagers sign up for online education and help doctors boost vaccination rates.
互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的新用戶大多來自新興市場：僅過去三年里就有約7.26億人接入網(wǎng)絡(luò)。中國的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)用戶數(shù)仍在快速增長。但大部分增長來自更貧困的地區(qū)，尤其是印度和非洲�？吹教摷傩侣労蜕縿有匝哉搶Ω辉夜娸浾摰挠绊懞螅S多觀察人士擔(dān)心政治風(fēng)氣正被敗壞——從印度選民的兩極分化，到緬甸對少數(shù)民族羅興亞人的迫害。從積極的一面看，慈善機構(gòu)和救援人員滔滔不絕、滿腔熱情地談?wù)撝悄苁謾C如何能讓農(nóng)民們查看農(nóng)作物價格、讓村民們報名接受在線教育，幫助醫(yī)生提高疫苗接種率。
Less well appreciated is that the main attractions of being online are the same for the second half as they were for the first. Socialising and play, not work and self-improvement, are the draw. Porn is popular. Messaging apps help friends stay in touch, and let migrant workers say goodnight to their children back home. People entertain their friends—and strangers—on social media with goofy home-made videos on YouTube or TikTok, an app focused on short, humorous clips. Cheap data plans and thumb drives bring pirated films to millions who may never have been to a cinema. Dating apps are more popular than farming advice; video games are more popular than either. Such boons are unlikely to make their way into many un development reports. But they are a boost to the stock of human happiness.
不那么讓人津津樂遁的一點是，吸引地球上其余一半人上網(wǎng)的主要原因和前一半人一樣，不是為了工作或自我提高，而是為了社交和娛樂。色情內(nèi)容很受歡迎。消息應(yīng)用讓朋友們保持聯(lián)系，讓在外地工作的人能向留在家里的孩子道晚安。人們在社交媒體上用YouTube或抖音(一款專注于搞笑短視頻的應(yīng)用)上自制的傻里傻氣的視頻取悅朋友和陌生人。便宜的流量套餐和閃存盤為數(shù)百萬可能至今未去過電影院的人帶來了盜版電影。約會應(yīng)用比耕種建議更流行，電子游戲又比這兩者都更受歡迎。這類福利不太可能出現(xiàn)在聯(lián)合國的眾多發(fā)展報告中，但它們的確增加了人類的幸福感。
窗體底端
For businesses, the second half of the internet offers a vast pool of customers. It also brings a headache—most of these new users are too poor to spend very much. Tens of billions of dollars in venture-capital money have flowed into internet startups in emerging markets, excluding China. The Silicon Valley giants have built up big user bases—over 1.5bn Facebook users are in developing countries. YouTube, a video site owned by Google, is increasingly dominated by non-Western users. Last year Walmart spent $16bn buying Flipkart, an Indian e-commerce giant. Jumia, an e-commerce firm with 4m customers in Nigeria and 13 other African countries, floated in New York in April.
對于企業(yè)來說，互聯(lián)網(wǎng)的下半程發(fā)展提供了一個巨大的客戶群。但這也帶來了一個麻煩…大多數(shù)新用戶很窮，沒多少錢可花。在不包括中國在內(nèi)的新興市場，已經(jīng)有數(shù)百億美元的風(fēng)險資本流入了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。硅谷巨頭們已經(jīng)在那里建立了龐大的用戶基礎(chǔ)，F(xiàn)acebook有超過1 5億用戶在發(fā)展中國家。谷歌旗下視頻網(wǎng)站YouTube漸漸由非西方用戶占據(jù)了主流。去年，沃爾瑪斥資1 60億美元收購了印度電子商務(wù)巨頭Flipkart。電子商務(wù)公司Jumia在尼日利亞和其他13個非洲國家擁有400萬客戶，今年4月在紐約上市。
Despite these firms’ punchy valuations, they are still looking for sustainable business models. Reliance Jio, an Indian firm, has sunk $37bn into building a high-speed mobile network and acquiring a big base of mostly poor users. Each Facebook user in Asia generates only $11 of advertising revenue a year, compared with $112 for a North American one. The combined revenue of all the internet firms in emerging markets (excluding China) is perhaps $100bn a year. That is about the same size as Comcast, America’s 31st-biggest listed firm by sales.
盡管這些公司的估值很高，但它們?nèi)栽趯ふ铱沙掷m(xù)的商業(yè)模式。印度公司Reliance Jio已投入370億美元建設(shè)高速移動網(wǎng)絡(luò)，而它獲得的龐大客戶中大部分為貧困人群o Facebook在亞洲的每名用戶每年只產(chǎn)生11美元的廣告收入，而北美用戶為112美元。在除中國外的新興市場，全體互聯(lián)網(wǎng)公司的年收入總額可能為1000億美元，與美國第31大上市公司康卡斯特( Comcast)的銷售額相當(dāng)。
Nonetheless, the impact of these firms on business will get bigger in two ways. First, they will grow fast—although whether fast enough to justify their valuations remains to be seen. To maximise their chances, many are offering not just a single service (such as search or video), as Western firms tended to in their early years, but a bundle of services in one app instead, in the hope of making more money per user. This approach was pioneered in China by Alibaba and Tencent. Go-Jek in Indonesia offers ride-hailing, payments, drug prescriptions and massages. Facebook is pushing a digital payments system in India through its chat service, WhatsApp.
盡管如此，這些公司將從兩方面對商業(yè)產(chǎn)生更大的影響。首先，它們將快速增長，盡管增速是否足以支撐其估值仍有待觀察。為盡量提高成功的機會，許多公司不是像早期的西方公司那樣提供單一的服務(wù)(如搜索或視頻).而是在一個應(yīng)用中提供一系列服務(wù)，以期在每個用戶上賺到更多錢。這種方法由阿里巴巴和騰訊在中國率先采用。Go-Jek在印尼提供叫車、支付、開藥和按摩服務(wù)。Facebook正通過其聊天應(yīng)用WhatsApp在印度推出一個數(shù)字支付系統(tǒng)。
The second is that in the emerging world, established firms are likely to be disrupted more quickly than incumbents were in the rich world. They have less infrastructure, such as warehouses and retail sites, to act as a barrier to entry. Many people, especially outside the big cities, lack access to their services entirely. Beer, shampoo and other consumer-goods firms could find that as marketing goes digital, new insurgent brands gain traction faster. Banks will be forced to adapt quickly to digital payments or die. Viewed this way, there is a huge amount of money at stake—the total market value of incumbent firms in the emerging world, outside China, is $8trn. If you thought the first half of the internet revolution was disruptive, just wait until you see the second act.
其次，在新興市場，成熟企業(yè)被顛覆的速度很可能要比過去在發(fā)達(dá)國家所發(fā)生的更快。它們擁有的可作為準(zhǔn)入門檻的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施(如倉庫和零售場所)更少。許多人一一特別是大城市以外的人群一一完全無法使用它們的服務(wù)。啤酒、洗發(fā)水和其他消費品公司可能會發(fā)現(xiàn)，隨著營銷走向數(shù)字化，新生的“叛軍”品牌會更快地獲得吸引力。銀行將被迫迅速適應(yīng)數(shù)字支付，否則就會倒閉。從這個角度來看，一大筆資本岌岌可危一一在中國以外的新興市場，成熟企業(yè)的總市值為八萬億美元。如果你認(rèn)為互聯(lián)網(wǎng)革命的前半段是顛覆性的，那等著看第二幕如何吧。
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