Facebook: Imperial Ambitions

Facebook：帝國(guó)野心

Mark Zuckerberg prepares to fight for dominance of the next era of computing

馬克·扎克伯格準(zhǔn)備為爭(zhēng)奪下一個(gè)計(jì)算時(shí)代的統(tǒng)治地位而戰(zhàn)

　　Not since the era of imperial Rome has the “thumbs-up” sign been such a potent and public symbol of power. A mere 12 years after it was founded, Facebook is a great empire with a vast population, immense wealth, a charismatic leader, and mind-boggling reach and influence. The world’s largest social network has 1.6 billion users, a billion of whom use it every day for an average of over 20 minutes each. In the Western world, Facebook accounts for the largest share of the most popular activity (social networking) on the most widely used computing devices (smartphones); its various apps account for 30% of mobile internet use by Americans. And it is the sixth-most-valuable public company on Earth, worth some $325 billion.

　　自羅馬帝國(guó)時(shí)代以來(lái)，“豎起大拇指”這一手勢(shì)就成為了公開(kāi)且有力的權(quán)力象征。成立僅十二年之后，F(xiàn)acebook已成為一個(gè)偉大的帝國(guó)，人口眾多、財(cái)富無(wú)數(shù)、領(lǐng)袖魅力非凡，且影響力和影響范圍令人難以想象。這一全球最大的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)擁有16億用戶，其中十億每天平均使用時(shí)間超過(guò)20分鐘。在西方世界，F(xiàn)acebook在最廣泛使用的計(jì)算設(shè)備(智能手機(jī))上的最受歡迎的活動(dòng)(社交網(wǎng)絡(luò))中所占份額最大;它各種各樣的應(yīng)用占美國(guó)人移動(dòng)互聯(lián)網(wǎng)使用的30%。它是全球市值第六大的上市公司，價(jià)值3250億美元。

　　Even so, Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s 31-year-old founder and chief executive, has even greater ambitions. He has plans to connect the digitally unconnected in poor countries by beaming internet signals from solar-powered drones, and is making big bets on artificial intelligence (AI), “chatbots” and virtual reality (VR). This bid for dominance will bring him into increasing conflict with the other great empires of the technology world, and Google in particular. The ensuing battle will shape the digital future for everyone.

　　即便如此，31歲的Facebook創(chuàng)始人及首席執(zhí)行官馬克·扎克伯格(Mark Zuckerberg)仍有更宏偉的志向。他計(jì)劃用太陽(yáng)能供電的無(wú)人機(jī)發(fā)送互聯(lián)網(wǎng)信號(hào)，以連接貧困國(guó)家尚未連入數(shù)字世界的人，他在人工智能(AI)、聊天機(jī)器人和虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)(VR)上押下重注。對(duì)統(tǒng)治地位的競(jìng)逐會(huì)令他和科技世界其他偉大帝國(guó)之間的沖突不斷增加，尤其是同谷歌之間。今后的戰(zhàn)斗將為每個(gè)人塑造數(shù)字化的未來(lái)。

　　Empires built on data

　　數(shù)據(jù)上的帝國(guó)

　　Facebook has prospered by building compelling services that attract large audiences, whose attention can then be sold to advertisers. The same is true of Google. The two play different roles in their users’ lives: Google has masses of data about the world, whereas Facebook knows about you and your friends; you go to Google to get things done, but turn to Facebook when you have time to kill. Yet their positions of dominance and their strategies are becoming remarkably similar. Unparalleled troves of data make both firms difficult to challenge and immensely profitable, giving them the wealth to make bold bets and to deal with potential competitors by buying them. And both firms crave more users and more data – which, for all the do-gooding rhetoric, explains why they are both so interested in extending internet access in the developing world, using drones or, in Google’s case, giant balloons.

　　Facebook打造多個(gè)引人矚目的服務(wù)吸引大量用戶，繼而將用戶的關(guān)注賣給廣告商，以此取得成功。谷歌也是如此。這兩大公司在其用戶的生活中扮演著不同的角色：谷歌擁有關(guān)于這個(gè)世界的大量數(shù)據(jù)，而Facebook了解你和你的朋友;你用谷歌是為了完成任務(wù)，但要打發(fā)時(shí)間時(shí)你會(huì)找Facebook。然而它們的統(tǒng)治地位和戰(zhàn)略正變得越來(lái)越相似。無(wú)與倫比的數(shù)據(jù)寶藏讓兩家公司都難有敵手，且獲利頗豐，它們的財(cái)富足以擲下豪注并且通過(guò)收購(gòu)解決潛在競(jìng)爭(zhēng)者。這兩家公司渴求更多用戶、更多數(shù)據(jù)，用冠冕堂皇的說(shuō)法，這解釋了為何它們都對(duì)在發(fā)展中國(guó)家擴(kuò)展互聯(lián)網(wǎng)連接興趣濃厚，F(xiàn)acebook使用無(wú)人機(jī)，谷歌則使用巨型氣球。

　　The task is to harness data to offer new services and make money in new ways. Facebook’s bet on AI is a recognition that “machine learning” – in which software learns by crunching data, rather than having to be explicitly programmed – is a big part of the answer. It already uses AI techniques to identify people in photos, for example, and to decide which status updates and ads to show to each user. Facebook is also pushing into AI-powered digital assistants and chatbot programs which interact with users via short messages. Next week it is expected to open up its Messenger service (which can already be used to do things like order an Uber car), to broaden the range of chatbots. And Facebook’s investment in VR – it bought Oculus, the cheerleader of this emerging field, for $2 billion in 2014 – is a bold guess about where computing and communication will go after the smartphone.

　　現(xiàn)在的任務(wù)是利用數(shù)據(jù)提供新的服務(wù)，以新的方式賺錢。Facebook在人工智能方面的賭注是對(duì)“機(jī)器學(xué)習(xí)”的認(rèn)可，即軟件通過(guò)分析數(shù)據(jù)學(xué)習(xí)，而不需要精確編寫程序。例如，它已經(jīng)利用人工智能技術(shù)來(lái)辨識(shí)照片中的人像，也用這一技術(shù)確定向每個(gè)用戶展示什么樣的狀態(tài)更新和廣告。Facebook還在推動(dòng)由人工智能支持的數(shù)字助手和聊天機(jī)器人程序，它們通過(guò)簡(jiǎn)短的信息與用戶互動(dòng)。下周它計(jì)劃開(kāi)放Messenger服務(wù)(它已經(jīng)可以用來(lái)做一些事情，例如從優(yōu)步叫車)，并且拓寬聊天機(jī)器人的適用范圍。Facebook在虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)上的投資是對(duì)計(jì)算和通信在智能手機(jī)之后將何去何從的大膽預(yù)測(cè)，它于2014年以20億美元收購(gòu)了這一新興領(lǐng)域的領(lǐng)頭羊Oculus。

　　But Facebook faces rivals in all these areas. Google is using AI techniques to improve its internet services and guide self-driving cars, and other industry giants are also investing heavily in AI – though with the deepest pockets and the most data to crunch, Facebook and Google can attract the best researchers and most promising startups. Facebook lags behind Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft when it comes to voice-driven personal assistants; when it comes to chatbots, it faces competition from Microsoft and a host of startups eager to prove that bots are the new apps. And its push into VR – which Mr Zuckerberg sees as a stepping stone to “augmented reality” (AR), where information is superimposed on the real world – pits it against formidable rivals, too. Microsoft has jumped straight to AR with its HoloLens headset, its most impressive product in years, and Google, already active in VR, has invested in Magic Leap, a little-known AR startup.

　　但是在所有這些領(lǐng)域Facebook都有對(duì)手。谷歌正利用人工智能技術(shù)提升其互聯(lián)網(wǎng)服務(wù)、指引無(wú)人駕駛汽車，其他業(yè)界巨頭也不惜重金投資人工智能，不過(guò)Facebook和谷歌錢袋最鼓、有最多數(shù)據(jù)可供分析，因此能吸引到最優(yōu)秀的研究人員和最具潛力的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。在由語(yǔ)音控制的個(gè)人助理領(lǐng)域，F(xiàn)acebook落后于亞馬遜、蘋果、谷歌和微軟;而在聊天機(jī)器人領(lǐng)域，它的對(duì)手是微軟以及諸多急于證明機(jī)器人是新應(yīng)用的創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。虛擬現(xiàn)實(shí)領(lǐng)域被扎克伯格視作“增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)”(AR)的踏腳石，AR即信息被疊加在真實(shí)世界上的技術(shù)。進(jìn)軍這一領(lǐng)域也讓Facebook和強(qiáng)敵正面交鋒。微軟憑借其多年來(lái)最引人矚目的產(chǎn)品HoloLens頭盔直接挺進(jìn)AR，而在VR領(lǐng)域已十分活躍的谷歌已經(jīng)投資了Magic Leap，一家鮮為人知的AR創(chuàng)業(yè)公司。

　　The scale of Facebook’s ambition, and the rivalries it faces, reflect a consensus that these technologies will transform how people interact with each other, with data and with their surroundings. AI will help devices and services anticipate your needs (Google’s Inbox app already suggests replies to your e-mails). Conversational interfaces will let you look things up and get things done by chatting to a machine by voice or text. And intelligent services will spread into a plethora of products, such as wearable devices, cars and VR/AR goggles. In a decade’s time computing seems likely to take the form of AR interfaces mediated by AI, using gestures and speech for inputs and the whole world as its display. Information will be painted onto the world around you, making possible new forms of communication, creativity and collaboration.

　　Facebook的雄心壯志及其面臨的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)反映出一個(gè)共識(shí)，即這些技術(shù)將轉(zhuǎn)變?nèi)伺c人之間、人與數(shù)據(jù)之間、人與周圍環(huán)境之間的互動(dòng)方式。人工智能會(huì)幫助設(shè)備和服務(wù)預(yù)測(cè)你的需求(谷歌的Inbox應(yīng)用已經(jīng)能對(duì)如何回復(fù)電子郵件提出建議)。會(huì)話接口能讓你通過(guò)語(yǔ)音或文字與機(jī)器對(duì)話來(lái)查閱信息和完成任務(wù)。智能服務(wù)將擴(kuò)展到太多產(chǎn)品中，如可穿戴設(shè)備、汽車和VR/AR眼鏡等。十年之內(nèi)，計(jì)算看似有可能采取增強(qiáng)現(xiàn)實(shí)界面，以人工智能為媒介，用手勢(shì)和語(yǔ)音進(jìn)行輸入，將整個(gè)世界作為它的顯示器。信息將被疊映在你周圍的世界之上，讓新形式的交流、創(chuàng)造與合作成為可能。

　　This is the ambitious vision that Facebook, Google, Microsoft and other technology giants are working towards. But along the way there are certain to be privacy and security concerns. Crunching all that information to provide personalised services looks a lot like surveillance, and will cause a backlash if consumers do not feel they are getting a good deal in return for handing over their personal details (as the advertising industry is discovering to its cost) – or if security is inadequate.

　　這是Facebook、谷歌、微軟及其他科技巨頭為之努力奮斗的恢弘愿景。但沿途必定會(huì)有隱私和安全問(wèn)題。分析所有信息以提供個(gè)性化的服務(wù)看起來(lái)很像監(jiān)控，并且如果消費(fèi)者感覺(jué)在提交個(gè)人詳細(xì)資料后并沒(méi)有獲得大量回報(bào)(廣告業(yè)吃過(guò)苦頭后正在明白這一點(diǎn))，又或者安全性不足，會(huì)引發(fā)激烈反對(duì)。

　　Power from the people

　　人的力量

　　There will also be worries about concentration and monopoly, and the danger of closed ecosystems that make it hard for people to switch between services. Facebook’s plan to offer free access to a limited subset of websites was blocked by India’s telecoms regulator, which argued that it was “risky” to allow one company to act as a gatekeeper. And Germany’s competition authority is investigating the way Facebook handles personal data. As its dominance grows, Facebook can expect to face more such cases, as Microsoft and Google did before it.

　　也有人會(huì)擔(dān)心集中、壟斷以及封閉式生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的危險(xiǎn)，讓人很難在各種服務(wù)之間切換。Facebook提供免費(fèi)接入一些指定網(wǎng)站的計(jì)劃被印度電信監(jiān)管部門阻攔，它們認(rèn)為讓一家公司來(lái)把關(guān)“太過(guò)危險(xiǎn)”。德國(guó)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)主管機(jī)構(gòu)正在調(diào)查Facebook處理個(gè)人信息的方式。隨著其統(tǒng)治地位的不斷加強(qiáng)，可以預(yù)見(jiàn)Facebook會(huì)遭遇更多此類情況，正如微軟和谷歌所經(jīng)歷的那樣。

　　Striking a balance between becoming ever more intimately entwined in billions of peoples’ lives, making huge profits as a result and avoiding a backlash will be one of the biggest business challenges of the century. Even in ancient Rome, emperors could find that the crowd suddenly turned against them. So applaud Mr Zuckerberg – and fear for him, too.

　　既能和數(shù)十億人的生活更緊密地交織在一起，又可借此獲得巨額利潤(rùn)并且避免強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)，如何在其間取得平衡將成為本世紀(jì)最大的商業(yè)挑戰(zhàn)之一。即便是在古羅馬，帝王們也會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)民眾會(huì)突然轉(zhuǎn)而反抗他們。所以為扎克伯格鼓掌，也為他擔(dān)憂吧。

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