Mobile Telecoms: Wireless: The Next Generation

移動(dòng)通信：無線：下一世代（節(jié)選）

A new wave of mobile technology is on its way, and will bring drastic change

醞釀中的新一代移動(dòng)技術(shù)將帶來巨變

　　The future is already arriving, it is just a question of knowing where to look. On Changshou Road in Shanghai, eagle eyes may spot an odd rectangular object on top of an office block: it is a collection of 128 miniature antennae. Pedestrians in Manhattan can catch a glimpse of apparatus that looks like a video camera on a stand, but jerks around and has a strange, hornlike protrusion where the lens should be. It blasts a narrow beam of radio waves at buildings so they can bounce their way to the receiver. The campus of the University of Surrey in Guildford, England, is dotted with 44 antennae, which form virtual wireless cells that follow a device around.

　　未來已然在目，只在于我們放眼何方。上海的長壽路上，目光敏銳的人會(huì)發(fā)現(xiàn)一座辦公樓的樓頂架著奇怪的矩形物體：由128條微型天線組成的設(shè)備。在曼哈頓，行人會(huì)瞥見攝像頭般的裝置立在支架上，不但會(huì)猛然轉(zhuǎn)動(dòng)，而且在本應(yīng)是鏡頭的位置有奇怪的角狀突出。該裝置向建筑物發(fā)射窄束無線電波，經(jīng)過反射的電波可以傳給接收器。薩里大學(xué)(University of Surrey)在英格蘭吉爾福德(Guildford)的校園內(nèi)分布著44臺(tái)天線，形成一套虛擬的無線基站，供手機(jī)使用。

　　These antennae are vanguards of a new generation of wireless technologies. Although the previous batch, collectively called “fourth generation”, or 4G, is still being rolled out in many countries, the telecoms industry has already started working on the next, 5G. On February 12th AT&T, America’s second-largest mobile operator, said it would begin testing whether prototype 5G circuitry works indoors, following similar news in September from Verizon, the number one. South Korea wants to have a 5G network up and running when it hosts the Winter Olympics in 2018; Japan wants the same for the summer games in 2020. When the industry held its annual jamboree, Mobile World Congress, in Barcelona in February, 5G topped the agenda.

　　這些天線是新一代無線技術(shù)的前沿成果。雖然許多國家仍在推廣被統(tǒng)稱為“第四代”(即4G)的前一代無線技術(shù)，但電信業(yè)已經(jīng)邁向下一代技術(shù)即5G的研發(fā)。2月12日，美國第二大移動(dòng)運(yùn)營商AT&T表示將試驗(yàn)5G原型電路能否在室內(nèi)接通。而早在去年9月，美國第一大移動(dòng)運(yùn)營商Verizon也做過類似的實(shí)驗(yàn)。韓國希望在2018年主辦冬季奧運(yùn)會(huì)時(shí)能建成并啟用5G網(wǎng)絡(luò);日本希望在2020年主辦夏季奧運(yùn)會(huì)時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)同樣的愿景。2月在無線業(yè)界于巴塞羅那召開的年度峰會(huì)世界移動(dòng)通信大會(huì)(Mobile World Congress)上，5G技術(shù)成為首要議題。

　　Mobile telecoms have come a long way since Martin Cooper of Motorola, inventor of the DynaTAC, the first commercially available handset, demonstrated it in 1973. In the early 2000s, when 3G technology made web-browsing feasible on mobiles, operators splashed out more than $100 billion on radio-spectrum licences, only to find that the technology most had agreed to use was harder to implement than expected.

　　自摩托羅拉的馬丁·庫帕(Martin Cooper)在1973年展示其發(fā)明的首款商用手機(jī)DynaTAC以來，移動(dòng)通訊已有長足的發(fā)展。21世紀(jì)初，3G技術(shù)使手機(jī)上網(wǎng)成為可能，運(yùn)營商于是砸出超過千億美元購入無線電頻譜牌照，卻發(fā)現(xiàn)這項(xiàng)大多數(shù)人已同意使用的技術(shù)推廣起來難于預(yù)期。 The advent of 5G is likely to bring another splurge of investment, just as orders for 4G equipment are peaking. The goal is to be able to offer users no less than the “perception of infinite capacity”, says Rahim Tafazolli, director of the 5G Innovation Centre at the University of Surrey. Rare will be the device that is not wirelessly connected, from self-driving cars and drones to the sensors, industrial machines and household appliances that together constitute the “internet of things” (IoT).

　　正當(dāng)4G設(shè)備迎來訂單高峰之際，5G的出現(xiàn)很可能激發(fā)另一輪投資熱潮。目標(biāo)是至少給用戶以 “功能無限的印象”，薩里大學(xué)5G創(chuàng)新中心主任拉希姆·塔法佐利(Rahim Tafazolli)說。將來，從無人駕駛汽車、無人機(jī)到構(gòu)成“物聯(lián)網(wǎng)”的一切傳感器、工業(yè)機(jī)械及家用電器，幾乎所有設(shè)備都能無線聯(lián)網(wǎng)。

　　It is easy to dismiss all this as “a lot of hype”, in the words of Kester Mann of CCS Insight, a research firm. When it comes to 5G, much is still up in the air: not only which band of radio spectrum and which wireless technologies will be used, but what standards makers of network gear and handsets will have to comply with. Telecoms firms have reached consensus only on a set of rough “requirements”. The most important are connection speeds of up to 10 gigabits per second and response times (“l(fā)atency”) of below 1 millisecond.

　　視這一切為“炒作”并嗤之以鼻很容易，研究公司CCS Insight的凱斯特·曼(Kester Mann)說道。提到5G，大都未有定論：不只是利用哪一頻段的無線電頻譜及哪些無線技術(shù)未定，還有網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備及手機(jī)制造商須遵照哪些標(biāo)準(zhǔn)也未確定。電信公司已就一套寬泛的“要求”達(dá)成共識(shí)。最重要的是連接速度最高要達(dá)到10Gbps，而且響應(yīng)時(shí)間(“網(wǎng)絡(luò)延遲”)須低于一毫秒。

　　Yet the momentum is real. South Korea and Japan are front-runners in wired broadband, and Olympic games are an opportunity to show the world that they intend also to stay ahead in wireless, even if that may mean having to upgrade their 5G networks to comply with a global standard once it is agreed. AT&T and Verizon both invested early in 4G, and would like to lead again with 5G. The market for network equipment has peaked, as recent results from Ericsson and Nokia show, so the makers also need a new generation of products and new groups of customers.

　　然而，勢(shì)頭已然成真。韓國和日本是有線寬帶建設(shè)的領(lǐng)跑國家，舉辦奧運(yùn)會(huì)是一個(gè)機(jī)會(huì)，向世界展現(xiàn)它們也想要領(lǐng)跑無線領(lǐng)域，即便這意味著在全球標(biāo)準(zhǔn)議定出臺(tái)后它們可能必須升級(jí)其5G網(wǎng)絡(luò)以符合標(biāo)準(zhǔn)要求。AT&T及Verizon均在早期率先投資4G，如今同樣希望在5G上再度領(lǐng)先。正如愛立信和諾基亞最近業(yè)績(jī)所顯示的那樣，網(wǎng)絡(luò)設(shè)備市場(chǎng)已經(jīng)飽和，因此制造商也需要新一代產(chǎn)品及新的客戶群。

　　On the demand side, too, pressure is mounting for better wireless infrastructure. The rapid growth in data traffic will continue for the foreseeable future, says Sundeep Rangan of NYU Wireless, a department of New York University. According to one estimate, networks need to be ready for a 1,000-fold increase in data volumes in the first half of the 2020s. And the radio spectrum used by 4G, which mostly sits below 3 gigahertz, is running out, and thus getting more expensive. An auction in America last year raked in $45 billion.

　　需求方面也一樣，改善無線基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施的呼聲日益迫切。紐約大學(xué)無線研究中心(NYU Wireless)的森迪普·蘭根(Sundeep Rangan)表示，在可預(yù)見的未來，數(shù)據(jù)流量將繼續(xù)快速增長。據(jù)估計(jì)，在本世紀(jì)20年代的前五年，網(wǎng)絡(luò)需要準(zhǔn)備好迎接上千倍的數(shù)據(jù)量增長。而4G所用的無線電頻段(大多低于3GHz)已逐漸稀缺，且愈加昂貴，去年美國一次競(jìng)拍便賣得450億美元。

　　But the path to a 5G wireless paradise will not be smooth. It is not only the usual telecoms suspects who will want a say in this mother of all networks. Media companies will want priority to be given to generous bandwidth, so they can stream films with ever higher resolution. Most IoT firms will not need much bandwidth, but will want their sensors to run on one set of batteries for years – so they will want the 5G standard to put a premium on low power consumption. Online-gaming firms will worry about latency: players will complain if it is too high.

　　但通往5G無線天堂的道路不會(huì)一帆風(fēng)順。對(duì)這一“萬網(wǎng)之源”，爭(zhēng)取話事權(quán)的不單是慣常那些電信企業(yè)。媒體公司希望優(yōu)先獲得更高的帶寬，以便其以更高分辨率在線播放影片。大部分物聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)不需要太大的帶寬，而是想自己的傳感器能靠一組電池續(xù)航數(shù)年，所以它們會(huì)希望5G標(biāo)準(zhǔn)重視低功耗。網(wǎng)游公司會(huì)擔(dān)心網(wǎng)絡(luò)延遲的問題：假如延遲過久，玩家會(huì)抱怨。

　　The most important set of new actors, however, are information-technology firms. The likes of Apple, IBM and Samsung have a big interest not only in selling more smartphones and other mobile devices, but also in IoT, which is tipped to generate the next big wave of revenues for them and other companies. Google, which already operates high-speed fibre-optic networks in several American cities and may be tempted to build a wireless one, has shown an interest in 5G. In 2014 it bought Alpental Technologies, a startup which was developing a cheap, high-speed communications service using extremely high radio frequencies, known as “millimetre wave” (mmWave), the spectrum bands above 3 gigahertz where most of 5G is expected to live.

　　然而，最重要的新登場(chǎng)者是信息技術(shù)公司。蘋果、IBM、三星這類企業(yè)不但關(guān)心賣出更多的智能手機(jī)及其他移動(dòng)設(shè)備，對(duì)于物聯(lián)網(wǎng)這據(jù)稱將為其帶來下一波收入巨浪的領(lǐng)域，他們也饒有興致。谷歌已在美國多個(gè)城市運(yùn)營高速光纖網(wǎng)絡(luò)業(yè)務(wù)，而且可能有意打造無線網(wǎng)絡(luò)，目前該公司已對(duì)5G表示興趣。2014年，谷歌收購了創(chuàng)業(yè)公司Alpental Technologies，該公司當(dāng)時(shí)正在研發(fā)通過極高頻無線電提供廉價(jià)而高速的通訊服務(wù)，即所謂的“毫米波”(mmWave，頻段高于3GHz，也是5G預(yù)期主要使用的頻段)。

　　To satisfy all these actors will not be easy, predicts Ulf Ewaldsson, Ericsson’s chief technology officer. Questions over spectrum may be the easiest to solve, in part because the World Radiocommunication Conference, established by international treaty, will settle them. Its last gathering, in November, failed to agree on the frequencies for 5G, but it is expected to do so when it next meets in 2019. It is likely to carve out space in the mmWave bands. Tests such as the one in Manhattan mentioned above, which are conducted by researchers from NYU Wireless, have shown that such bands can be used for 5G: although they are blocked even by thin obstacles, they can be made to bounce around them.

　　要滿足所有各方所求并非易事，愛立信首席技術(shù)官烏爾夫·艾華信(Ulf Ewaldsson)預(yù)言道。頻段問題也許是最容易解決的，一方面是因?yàn)榘磭�際條約成立的世界無線電通信大會(huì)將解決這些問題。大會(huì)上一次召開是在去年11月，雖然當(dāng)時(shí)無法就5G所用頻率達(dá)成一致，但預(yù)計(jì)大會(huì)下一次在2019年召開時(shí)便可達(dá)成共識(shí)，并很可能會(huì)在毫米波頻段中開辟空間。諸如上文提及由NYU無線研究中心研究人員在曼哈頓所做的測(cè)試已顯示，這些頻段可以用于5G：雖然薄障礙物也會(huì)造成阻隔，但可以讓它們通過反射繞過障礙物。

　　For the first time there will not be competing sets of technical rules, as was the case with 4G, when LTE, now the standard, was initially threatened by WiMax, which was bankrolled by Intel, a chipmaker. Nobody seems willing to play Intel’s role this time around. That said, 5G will be facing a strong competitor, especially indoors: smartphone users are increasingly using Wi-Fi connections for calls and texts as well as data. That means they have ever less need for a mobile connection, no matter how blazingly fast it may be.

　　沒有多套技術(shù)準(zhǔn)則相互競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，這實(shí)屬首次，不像4G推出時(shí)的情形，如今普遍采用的LTE標(biāo)準(zhǔn)最初還受到芯片制造商英特爾投資開發(fā)的WiMax標(biāo)準(zhǔn)威脅。這次，似乎沒有誰愿意扮演英特爾的角色。盡管如此，5G將面對(duì)一個(gè)強(qiáng)大對(duì)手，尤其是在室內(nèi)：智能手機(jī)用戶除了用Wi-Fi傳輸數(shù)據(jù)之外，也越來越多地用其打電話及發(fā)短信。那意味著他們對(duì)接入移動(dòng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的需求越來越少，不管數(shù)據(jù)的傳輸有多么極速。

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