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When will the Covid-19 pandemic end? And how?
Covid-19疫情什么時(shí)候才能結(jié)束?它會(huì)怎樣結(jié)束?
According to historians, pandemics typically have two types of endings: the medical, which occurs when the incidence and death rates plummet, and the social, when the epidemic of fear about the disease wanes.
根據(jù)歷史學(xué)家的說法,大流行通常有兩種意義上的結(jié)束:一種是醫(yī)療意義上的結(jié)束,出現(xiàn)在發(fā)病率和病亡率大幅下降的時(shí)候;另一種是社會(huì)意義上的結(jié)束,發(fā)生在人們對(duì)疾病的恐懼逐漸消退的時(shí)候。
“When people ask, ‘When will this end?,’ they are asking about the social ending,” said Dr. Jeremy Greene, a historian of medicine at Johns Hopkins.
“當(dāng)人們問‘什么時(shí)候才能結(jié)束’時(shí),”約翰斯·霍普金斯大學(xué)(Johns Hopkins)的醫(yī)學(xué)歷史學(xué)家(Jeremy Greene)說,“他們問的是社會(huì)意義上的結(jié)束!
In other words, an end can occur not because a disease has been vanquished but because people grow tired of panic mode and learn to live with a disease. Allan Brandt, a Harvard historian, said something similar was happening with Covid-19: “As we have seen in the debate about opening the economy, many questions about the so-called end are determined not by medical and public health data but by sociopolitical processes.”
換句話說,大流行的結(jié)束并不是因?yàn)檎鞣思膊,而是因(yàn)槿藗儏捑肓丝只拍J剑瑢W(xué)會(huì)了與疾病共存。哈佛大學(xué)歷史學(xué)家(Allan Brandt)表示,新冠病毒也出現(xiàn)了類似情況:“正如我們?cè)谟嘘P(guān)開放經(jīng)濟(jì)的辯論中所看到的那樣,許多關(guān)于所謂結(jié)束的問題不是由醫(yī)療和公共衛(wèi)生數(shù)據(jù)決定的,而是由社會(huì)政治進(jìn)程決定的。”
Endings “are very, very messy,” said Dora Vargha, a historian at the University of Exeter. “Looking back, we have a weak narrative. For whom does the epidemic end, and who gets to say?”
埃克塞特大學(xué)(University of Exeter)的歷史學(xué)家(Dora Vargha)說,疫情的結(jié)束往往“非常、非;靵y”。她說:“回顧過去,我們的敘事很不周密。疫情究竟對(duì)于誰來說算是結(jié)束了,疫情結(jié)束又是誰說了算呢?”
In the path of fear
恐懼之路
An epidemic of fear can occur even without an epidemic of illness. Dr. Susan Murray, of the Royal College of Surgeons in Dublin, saw that firsthand in 2014 when she was a fellow at a rural hospital in Ireland.
即使沒有疾病的流行,恐懼也會(huì)流傳開來。都柏林皇家外科學(xué)院(Royal College of Surgeons)的(Susan Murray)博士在2014年親眼目睹了這種事,當(dāng)時(shí)她正在愛爾蘭一家鄉(xiāng)村醫(yī)院從事研究工作。
In the preceding months, more than 11,000 people in West Africa had died from Ebola, a terrifying viral disease that was highly infectious and often fatal. The epidemic seemed to be waning, and no cases had occurred in Ireland, but the public fear was palpable.
在之前的幾個(gè)月里,西非有超過1.1萬人死于埃博拉病毒,這是一種可怕的病毒性疾病,傳染性極強(qiáng),往往致命。當(dāng)時(shí)的疫情似乎正在減弱,愛爾蘭也沒有出現(xiàn)病例,但公眾卻非?謶。
“On the street and on the wards, people are anxious,” Dr. Murray recalled recently in an article in The New England Journal of Medicine. “Having the wrong color skin is enough to earn you the side-eye from your fellow passengers on the bus or train. Cough once, and you will find them shuffling away from you.”
“在街頭、在病房里,人們都很焦慮,”默里博士最近在《新英格蘭醫(yī)學(xué)雜志》(the New England Journal of Medicine)的一篇文章中回憶道。“膚色不對(duì)就足以讓你在公交車或火車上被其他乘客側(cè)目?纫宦,你就會(huì)看見他們慢慢地從你身邊走開!
Dr. Murray wrote: “If we are not prepared to fight fear and ignorance as actively and as thoughtfully as we fight any other virus, it is possible that fear can do terrible harm to vulnerable people, even in places that never see a single case of infection during an outbreak. And a fear epidemic can have far worse consequences when complicated by issues of race, privilege, and language.”
默里博士寫道:“如果我們沒有準(zhǔn)備好像抗擊任何其他病毒那樣,嚴(yán)肅積極地與恐懼和無知做斗爭,恐懼就有可能對(duì)弱勢(shì)群體造成可怕的傷害,即使在疫情暴發(fā)期間從未出現(xiàn)一例感染病例的地區(qū)也是如此。當(dāng)種族、特權(quán)和語言問題令情況復(fù)雜化時(shí),恐懼的流傳可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生更可怕的后果。
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