Groundbreaking Change

創(chuàng)新衰敗之困

　　If asked to give one example of a successful innovation in the past 10 years, what would come to mind first?

　　如果有人讓你舉出一個(gè)過(guò)去10年間成功創(chuàng)新的例子，你首先想到會(huì)是什么?

　　Apple’s shiny cool gadgets like the iPhone and the iPad? Or the emergence of social networking sites such as the Facebook and its various copycats?

　　是iPhone、iPad等炫酷的蘋果產(chǎn)品?還是諸如Facebook及眾多仿Facebook的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)的興起?

　　We admit these devices and applications have greatly changed our lifestyle. We have never before felt so connected and social networking sites are powerful tools in motivating people to take part in worthy social and civic causes.

　　我們承認(rèn)，這些設(shè)備和應(yīng)用極大地改變了我們的生活方式。在此之前，我們從未感覺和世界連接得如此緊密;在鼓勵(lì)人們投身到有價(jià)值的社會(huì)和公民事業(yè)這一方面，社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)發(fā)揮著巨大的作用。

　　We churn out one nifty gadget after another, with bigger screens and less buttons. We tweak text and photo-sharing social networking sites to create a new product to share, perhaps audios and videos. There is a cloud for us to store and share our files.

　　時(shí)髦的發(fā)明一個(gè)接一個(gè)：屏幕越來(lái)越大，按鍵越來(lái)越少。我們對(duì)可以讓人們分享文字和圖片的社交網(wǎng)絡(luò)進(jìn)行改革，創(chuàng)造了一種可以分享音頻、視頻的新產(chǎn)品。有了云服務(wù)，我們可以存儲(chǔ)并分享自己的文件。

　　All of these are wonderful, but what about truly groundbreaking and visionary endeavors that will profoundly change the world and human life?

　　所有這一切都棒極了，但從真正意義上講，究竟什么才是深刻改變世界和人類生活的富有遠(yuǎn)見的創(chuàng)造性貢獻(xiàn)呢?

　　More than a half century ago science fiction envisioned a future where human beings made routine space trips. They lived in colonies in other galaxies or on the seabed.

　　半個(gè)多世紀(jì)前，科幻小說(shuō)中設(shè)想出這樣一個(gè)未來(lái)：對(duì)于人類而言，太空之旅已成為平常事。他們居住在位于其他銀河系或海底的殖民地之上。

　　They made food out of thin air and could live for 300 years. Unfortunately, none of these things will happen in the foreseeable future.

　　他們可以利用稀薄的空氣制造食物，壽命能達(dá)到 300歲。可惜所有這些在可預(yù)見的未來(lái)都不會(huì)實(shí)現(xiàn)。

　　Is something wrong with our technological development? Steve Blank, writing in The Huffinton Post, blamed social networking and social media companies such as Facebook for stifling innovation.

　　我們的技術(shù)開發(fā)是不是出現(xiàn)了什么問(wèn)題?史提夫·布蘭克在《赫芬頓郵報(bào)》上發(fā)表文章，指責(zé)像Facebook這樣的社交網(wǎng)站和社交媒體公司扼殺了創(chuàng)新。

　　Blank teaches entrepreneurship at Stanford, Columbia and the US’ National Science Foundation Innovation Corps. He advises people, especially venture capitalists (VC), who want to commercialize inventions.

　　布蘭克同時(shí)在斯坦福大學(xué)、哥倫比亞大學(xué)以及美國(guó)國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金創(chuàng)新研究群體任職，教授創(chuàng)業(yè)課程。他會(huì)為學(xué)員，尤其是那些想將新發(fā)明商業(yè)化的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資者們提供建議。

　　Blank argues that the success of Facebook and other social networking and social media companies is diverting venture capital from serious research with a more uncertain payoff.

　　布蘭克認(rèn)為Facebook等社交網(wǎng)站和社交媒體公司的成功，使得那些回報(bào)不算明朗的“嚴(yán)肅研究”不再受到風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資本的青睞。

　　He is talking about research that truly visionary VCs should be supporting.

　　他所說(shuō)的嚴(yán)肅研究是那些真正有遠(yuǎn)見的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資者應(yīng)當(dāng)全力支持的項(xiàng)目。

　　Instead of “investing in a blockbuster cancer drug that will pay them nothing for 15 years”, Blank says VCs are throwing their money at the latest and possibly greatest social-media idea that can run on smartphones or tablets in hopes of scoring a quick return when it goes big.

　　與其“投資一種有重大意義的抗癌藥品，十五年都沒有回報(bào)，”布蘭克稱：“如今風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家更喜歡將資本投向最新、也可能是最棒的，支持智能手機(jī)和平板電腦的社交媒體，期望其做大的時(shí)候能得到快速收益�！�

　　“In the past,” Blank wrote, “if you were a successful VC, you could make $100 million (637 million yuan) on an investment in five to seven years. Today, social media startups can return hundreds of millions or even billions in less than three years.”

　　“在過(guò)去”，布蘭克寫道：“如果你是位成功的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)投資家，你可以在五至七年內(nèi)，在一項(xiàng)投資上賺到1億美元(合6.37億人民幣)。今天，社交媒體的新秀們能讓你在不到三年的時(shí)間里得到數(shù)億甚至數(shù)十億的回報(bào)。”

　　On TechCrunch.com, Alexander Haislip, a marketing executive at a tech startup, is even more critical.

　　在TechCrunch網(wǎng)站上，一位來(lái)自新興技術(shù)公司的市場(chǎng)主管亞力山大·希斯立普對(duì)此的態(tài)度則更為苛刻。

　　Facebook may be doing exciting things with advertising, he acknowledges, but how exciting is advertising, anyway? It’s hardly, he complains, “the best use of the brightest minds of our generation”.

　　他承認(rèn)或許Facebook在廣告方面做的很棒，可話說(shuō)回來(lái)，廣告又能多有趣呢?他抱怨道：“這并沒有充分利用我們這一代的聰明才智�！�

　　A 1999 report in the Wire magazine predicted: “The convergence of mobile phones and the Internet, high-speed wireless data access, intelligent networks, and pervasive computing will shape how we work, shop, pay bills, flirt, keep appointments, conduct wars, keep up with our children, and write poetry in the next century.”

　　一則1999年發(fā)表于《Wire》雜志的報(bào)道預(yù)言稱：“手機(jī)、網(wǎng)絡(luò)、高速無(wú)線數(shù)據(jù)存取、智能網(wǎng)絡(luò)和普適計(jì)算將會(huì)決定我們下個(gè)世紀(jì)的工作、購(gòu)物、付賬、調(diào)情、約會(huì)、戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)、與孩子相處，甚至是寫詩(shī)的方式。”

　　Thirteen years later, we are already living in the world the report described. Perhaps it is time for us to ask: What now?

　　十三年后，我們已經(jīng)生活在了該報(bào)道所預(yù)言的世界中。也許現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候問(wèn)問(wèn)我們自己：“現(xiàn)在該怎么辦?”

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