Depression index

　　蕭條指數(shù)

　　The D-word

　　“蕭條”的出現(xiàn)頻率

　　Oct 2nd 2008

　　From Economist.com

　　MANY comparisons may be made between the devastation being wrought on America’s financial system today and the Wall Street crash of 1929. One similarity that the world is desperate to avoid is a repeat of the depression of the 1930s. Hopes are pinned on the American bail-out plan that the House of Representatives is set to reconsider on Friday October 3rd. If the fear of depression is anything to go by, the future looks bleak. A survey of newspaper articles over the past two decades shows a sharp spike in mentions of the dreaded D-word, as commentators have started to think the worst. The prognostications may possibly turn out to be true, or perhaps the only thing we have to fear are the fears of journalists themselves.

　　人們或許將如今美國(guó)金融系統(tǒng)遭遇的重創(chuàng)同1929年的華爾街大崩盤(pán)做了許多比較。它們有一個(gè)相似之處，那就是1930年代經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的重復(fù)，而這也正是世界所極力避免的。希望都寄托在美國(guó)的 救市計(jì)劃上，眾議院將于10月3日周五重新審核該計(jì)劃。如果用對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條的恐懼作為判斷標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的話，前景著實(shí)堪憂。對(duì)過(guò)去20年來(lái)新聞報(bào)道文章的分析表明， 當(dāng)評(píng)論員們開(kāi)始對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況做最壞打算時(shí)，可怕的“蕭條”字眼出現(xiàn)頻率變高。而目前的蕭條指數(shù)已經(jīng)是過(guò)去20年來(lái)的最高值了。這個(gè)預(yù)兆可能真的會(huì)應(yīng)驗(yàn)，但或 許記者們自身的恐懼情緒才是唯一應(yīng)該讓我們感到害怕的東西。

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