The economy's stumble

　　經(jīng)濟(jì)的絆足

　　Air pocket or second dip?

　　氣囊保護(hù)還是二次淪陷?

　　Oct 8th 2009 | WASHINGTON, DC

　　From The Economist print edition

　　A slump in September prompts thoughts of new stimulus

　　9月經(jīng)濟(jì)大跌，新刺激方案提上日程

　　AFTER riding a wave of improvement since the spring, the economy stumbled in September according to the latest figures. Non-farm employment sank by 263,000, which was 62,000 more than in August, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.1% to 9.8%. Car sales tumbled as the federal “cash-for-clunkers” programme expired. Manufacturing activity cooled a bit.

　　根據(jù)最新統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)據(jù)，從春季開(kāi)始一路高歌猛進(jìn)的美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在9月大幅下跌。非農(nóng)業(yè)職位減少了26.3萬(wàn)個(gè)，降幅較8月增加了6.2萬(wàn)個(gè)，失業(yè)率升至9.8%，增幅0.1%。汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量在聯(lián)邦“舊車(chē)換現(xiàn)金”計(jì)劃結(jié)束后陡降。制造業(yè)略有放緩。

　　All this is probably an air pocket; overall economic output almost certainly began to rise in the third quarter of the year and employment will eventually follow. Leading indicators such as the stockmarket and new claims for unemployment benefits are signaling recovery. But it is taking a painfully long time. “We will need to grind out this recovery step by step,” acknowledged Barack Obama on October 3rd, the day after the job data were released. To add insult to injury, the Bureau of Labour Statistics concluded that the economy lost 824,000 more jobs in the year to March than it had originally thought. That would raise the recession’s toll so far to 8m, or 5.8% of the workforce. Assuming no further revisions, the recession now holds the honour of the most severe since the Second World War—exceeding even the 5% loss recorded in 1948.

　　這一切或許是如“氣囊”一般的保護(hù)性反應(yīng);今年第三季度，經(jīng)濟(jì)總量確已開(kāi)始上升，就業(yè)率最終也將隨之跟進(jìn)。證券市場(chǎng)以及新失業(yè)津貼政策等主要指標(biāo)都預(yù)示著經(jīng)濟(jì)的回暖。然而，前路漫漫�！拔覀冃枰�逐步恢復(fù)經(jīng)濟(jì)，”巴拉克•奧巴馬在就業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)發(fā)布的第二天(10月3日)承認(rèn)說(shuō)。雪上加霜的是，勞動(dòng)統(tǒng)計(jì)局表示，截至今年5月，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)比預(yù)想的進(jìn)一步減少了82.4萬(wàn)個(gè)職位。這使得經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退造成的總失業(yè)人數(shù)達(dá)到了800萬(wàn)，占勞動(dòng)力的5.8%。如果經(jīng)濟(jì)停止進(jìn)一步惡化，那這將是自二戰(zhàn)以來(lái)最嚴(yán)重的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退——其損失超過(guò)了1948年所記載的GDP的5%。

　　The bigger problem is that once employment growth resumes, it will probably remain anaemic. More than half of businesses say they will not return to pre-recession staffing levels until 2012, if ever, according to a September survey of chief financial officers by Duke University and CFO Magazine, a sister publication of The Economist. Fully 43% still plan to cull payrolls in the next 12 months.

　　更大的問(wèn)題在于，就業(yè)一旦增加，它仍有可能持續(xù)疲軟。根據(jù)杜克大學(xué)及《CFO Magazine》雜志(與《The Economist》同屬一家公司)財(cái)務(wù)長(zhǎng)在9月的一份報(bào)告，超過(guò)半數(shù)的公司表示即使其人員編制有所回升，但在2012年之前不會(huì)回到衰退前的水平。共有43%的公司計(jì)劃在未來(lái)的12個(gè)月中繼續(xù)裁減人手。

　　Mr Obama and his advisers are considering new measures to boost the economy. These will not be on the scale of this year’s $787 billion stimulus programme, which will in any case continue to inject money into the economy until the end of next year. More likely, he will seek to continue some provisions of the stimulus bill, such as extending unemployment benefits for laid-off workers and subsidies to allow them to keep their health insurance.

　　奧巴馬先生和他的顧問(wèn)們正考慮新的經(jīng)濟(jì)提振措施，但其規(guī)模將不及今年7870億美元的刺激計(jì)劃，后者于明年年底之前將不遺余力的不斷向經(jīng)濟(jì)注入資金�？赡苄愿�大的是，他將延續(xù)刺激方案中的某些條款，如下崗職工失業(yè)津貼擴(kuò)面以及健康保險(xiǎn)補(bǔ)助等。

　　The retreat in car sales when cash-for-clunkers ended was a jarring reminder of the withdrawal symptoms that await when other stimulus measures, such as the homebuyer’s credit, are allowed to expire. But extending them would boost a soaring deficit that is estimated to have hit $1.4 billion in the fiscal year that ended on September 30th. Voters are nervous about red ink stretching away into the future, and even Mr Obama’s liberal supporters are turning up the heat. This week Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, said a value-added tax should be “on the table”. It may yet come to that, though introducing such a tax too early would risk choking off the recovery and creating a brand new tax that would give the president’s enemies a field-day. No one said his job was easy.

　　“舊車(chē)換現(xiàn)金”計(jì)劃結(jié)束所帶來(lái)的汽車(chē)銷(xiāo)量下降預(yù)示了在諸如購(gòu)房貸款等刺激措施期滿(mǎn)結(jié)束后經(jīng)濟(jì)所將經(jīng)歷的退縮癥狀。但是，如果繼續(xù)實(shí)行此類(lèi)措施，那將會(huì)為9月30日截止的本財(cái)政年帶來(lái)預(yù)計(jì)高達(dá)14億美元的財(cái)政赤字。選民們對(duì)未來(lái)源源不斷的財(cái)政赤字憂(yōu)心忡忡，甚至是奧巴馬先生的自由派支持者都在火上澆油。本周，眾議院議長(zhǎng)南希•佩洛西表示，征收增值稅應(yīng)該 “提上日程”。增值稅遲早會(huì)付諸實(shí)施。然而，過(guò)早的出臺(tái)此類(lèi)稅收將有可能阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)恢復(fù)，同時(shí)，征收新稅將會(huì)為總統(tǒng)的勁敵們提供反擊機(jī)會(huì)。大家都知道，奧巴馬先生過(guò)得不容易。

　　考試網(wǎng)校課程培訓(xùn)：選擇考試網(wǎng)讓全體學(xué)友見(jiàn)證你的進(jìn)展！新的商務(wù)英語(yǔ)網(wǎng)校培訓(xùn)課程緊貼新題型，助你直擊四大專(zhuān)項(xiàng)，24H在線(xiàn)答疑，商務(wù)英語(yǔ)輕易掌握！開(kāi)課三日內(nèi)不滿(mǎn)意無(wú)條件退費(fèi)！商務(wù)英語(yǔ)初中高級(jí)各項(xiàng)套餐學(xué)習(xí)班，針對(duì)考生量身打造！

　　統(tǒng)一服務(wù)熱線(xiàn)：4000-525-585