China's stimulus

　　Got a light? 經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇已被點(diǎn)燃?

　　China’s big fiscal package may be starting to work

　　中國龐大的財(cái)政措施可能已經(jīng)起效

　　“ONLY when all contribute their firewood can they build up a strong fire,” says a Chinese proverb. With the world economy in its worst crisis in 70 years, every country needs to do its bit to rekindle global demand. The American government, which plans to run a budget deficit of 12% of GDP this year, has called on its Group of 20 partners to do more. Is China one of the misers? Its budget, published last week, showed that it plans to run a deficit of only 3% of GDP. Was the 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) infrastructure package unveiled last November, worth 14% of GDP, a sham?

　　中國有句民諺：“眾人拾柴火焰高�！彪S著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入70年以來的最大危機(jī)，要重燃全球需求之火，各國都責(zé)無旁貸。美國政府計(jì)劃今年運(yùn)行占國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值12%的財(cái)政赤字，并號(hào)召二十國集團(tuán)的伙伴們作出更多行動(dòng)。中國是其中的吝嗇鬼嗎?它在上周公布的預(yù)算顯示，中國計(jì)劃運(yùn)行的財(cái)政赤字只占GDP的3%。難道去年十一月公布的4億元用于基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)的措施——相當(dāng)于GDP的14%——僅僅是在忽悠?

　　Beijing’s stimulus is smaller than the number announced last year, but it is still the biggest in the world. The fact that America is set to run a budget deficit four times the size of China’s as a share of GDP does not mean its demand stimulus is bigger; America started this year with a much bigger deficit. America’s deficit will increase by more than China’s this year, largely because it is suffering a deeper recession which will depress tax revenue. The correct measure of a fiscal stimulus is the change in the budget deficit adjusted for the impact of the economic cycle.

　　北京的刺激計(jì)劃小于去年公布的數(shù)字，但這依然是世界范圍內(nèi)最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案。盡管美國運(yùn)行的財(cái)政赤字是中國的四倍，但這并不意味著它的需求性刺激計(jì)劃就更大。美國從今年開始就保持了巨大的財(cái)政赤字，并且年內(nèi)赤字增長將高于中國。這主要是因?yàn)槊绹�遭受的�?jīng)濟(jì)衰退極大地減少了稅收。財(cái)政刺激方案的正確措施應(yīng)該是調(diào)整財(cái)政赤字以適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟(jì)圈的沖擊。

　　In China, however, even this would understate the true stimulus, because some public-infrastructure investment will be done by state-owned firms or local governments and financed by banks. Tao Wang of UBS estimates that new infrastructure investment, tax cuts, consumer subsidies and increased spending on health care will amount to a stimulus by the central government of about 3% of GDP in 2009. Adding in bank-financed infrastructure spending might lift the total to 4% of GDP.

　　然而在中國，經(jīng)濟(jì)赤字掩蓋了真實(shí)的刺激方案，因?yàn)橐恍┕�共基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資是由銀行提供資金、國有公司或地方政府實(shí)施的。瑞銀的陶旺(音)預(yù)計(jì)，新的基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施建設(shè)、減稅、消費(fèi)補(bǔ)貼以及醫(yī)療方面的投資增長將構(gòu)成總額占到GDP3%的09年中央政府刺激方案。如果加上由銀行提供資金支持的基建支出，整個(gè)刺激方案將占到GDP的4%。

　　Chinese investment in railways, roads and power grids is already booming. In the first two months of this year, total fixed investment was 30% higher in real terms than a year earlier, and investment in railways tripled. China has been much criticised for focusing its stimulus on investment, rather than consumption, but in China in the short term this is the quickest way to boost domestic demand.

　　中國在鐵路、公路和電網(wǎng)方面的投資已經(jīng)大規(guī)模展開。今年頭兩個(gè)月內(nèi)，固定投資總額較去年同期增長30%，鐵路投資增長了3倍。很多批評認(rèn)為，中國的刺激方案集中于投資而不是消費(fèi)，但就短期來看，在中國這是提高國內(nèi)需求最立竿見影的方式。

　　What about the other tool for boosting domestic spending, namely monetary policy? Since the start of last year, China has cut its interest rates by only half as much as America’s Federal Reserve has. New figures showing that consumer prices fell by 1.6% in the year to February have brought the first whiff of deflation, suggesting that China has not done enough to boost demand. But this is not true deflation, where falling prices are accompanied by shrinking money supply and credit. Bank lending grew by 24% over the past year. The true gauge of monetary easing is not the cut in interest rates, but whether it succeeds in spurring new lending. China is one of the few countries in the world where credit has accelerated since the start of the global credit crunch—though some of the lending is of the state-directed sort.

　　那么作為提高國內(nèi)消費(fèi)另一手段的貨幣政策又運(yùn)用的怎樣?從去年年初開始，中國已經(jīng)將利率砍到美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的一半。新的統(tǒng)計(jì)數(shù)字顯示，到二月，消費(fèi)品價(jià)格較去年下降了1.6%，從而帶來了第一輪通貨緊縮。這似乎意味著中國在提高需求方面做的尚且不夠。但其實(shí)，這并不是真正的通貨緊縮。真正的通縮情況下，貨幣供應(yīng)和信貸會(huì)隨著物價(jià)下降而萎縮。去年，銀行借貸增長了24%。對銀根放松的正確估量并非基于利率，而是其是否成功刺激新的借貸產(chǎn)生。中國作為世界上少有的幾個(gè)國家，其借貸規(guī)模在全球信貸危機(jī)爆發(fā)后不降反升——盡管部分借貸是在國家指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的。

　　China has not only accomplished considerable fiscal and monetary easing. By allowing the yuan to rise by 18% in trade-weighted terms over the past 12 months, Beijing is passing on some of that boost to the rest of the world.

　　中國不僅完成了規(guī)�？捎^的財(cái)政和銀根放松計(jì)劃，還通過讓人民幣在過去12個(gè)月內(nèi)升值18%(貿(mào)易加權(quán)考慮在內(nèi))，部分促進(jìn)了世界貨幣經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。

　　The real question is whether China’s stimulus is big enough? Exports fell by a sharper-than-expected 26% in the year to February and may yet drop further. The 12-month rate of growth in industrial production also dropped to only 3.8% in the first two months of 2009, and retail-sales growth slowed to 15%. But there are some tentative signs of a recovery in domestic demand. As well as the increases in investment and bank lending, car sales and electricity consumption have picked up. Mingchun Sun of Nomura reckons that the stimulus will be enough to achieve 8% growth this year. But the government has made it clear that if the economy remains feeble, it will supply another fiscal boost.

　　真正的問題是：中國的貿(mào)易刺激方案數(shù)量是否已經(jīng)夠大?到今年二月，年出口額下降遠(yuǎn)超預(yù)期，達(dá)26%，并且可能繼續(xù)下挫。工業(yè)生產(chǎn)12個(gè)月增幅在09年頭兩個(gè)月已將至3.8%，零售業(yè)增長放緩至15%。但是仍然有一些國內(nèi)需求復(fù)蘇的暫時(shí)性指標(biāo)。除了投資和銀行貸款增長外，汽車銷售和電力消費(fèi)同樣得到提振。野村證券的孫明春(音)認(rèn)為，經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激方案能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)8%的年度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長。但是政府已經(jīng)明確表示，如果經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)疲軟，將會(huì)提供另外的財(cái)政提振方案。

　　Such injections may be able to drag growth back to 8% this year, but they cannot keep the economy running at this pace if global demand remains depressed. The need for China to shift the mix of growth from exports to consumption has become more urgent. Chinese officials are right to say that it will take years for higher public spending on health care and a social safety net to reduce household saving—all the more reason to speed up such policies. If not, even China’s fire could burn out.

　　這些注入或許可以把今年的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長拉回到8%，但如果全球需求持續(xù)悲觀，增速便難以維持。對于中國而言，出口轉(zhuǎn)內(nèi)銷的需要已經(jīng)更加緊迫。中國官員正確地表示，將會(huì)用數(shù)年時(shí)間增量投資公共衛(wèi)生和社保體系以降低居民存款，使得這些政策的加速實(shí)施更加名正言順。否則，即便是中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)火焰也會(huì)被撲滅。

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