The jobs crisis 失業(yè)危機(jī)

　　It’s coming, whatever governments do; but they can make it better or worse

　　不論政府如何努力，失業(yè)危機(jī)已經(jīng)到來。不過政府可以在這場危機(jī)中起到關(guān)鍵作用

　　Illustration by Belle Mellor

　　NOTHING evokes the misery of mass unemployment more than the photographs of the Depression. You can see it in the drawn faces of the men, in their shabby clothes, in their eyes. Their despair spawned political extremism that left a stain on society; but it also taught subsequent generations that public policy has a vital part in alleviating the suffering of those who cannot get work. Thanks to welfare schemes and unemployment benefits, many of which have their origins in those dark days, joblessness no longer plunges people into destitution, at least in the developed world.

　　再沒有什么比關(guān)于經(jīng)濟(jì)大蕭條的照片更能讓人體會大量失業(yè)的痛苦。這種痛苦顯見于人們緊繃的面容，襤褸的衣衫，還有他們的眼神。由人們的絕望所引發(fā)的政治極端主義給社會留下污點(diǎn);失業(yè)問題也使后人懂得公共政策在減輕失業(yè)痛苦方面所起到的重要作用。很多福利計(jì)劃和失業(yè)救濟(jì)金方案都發(fā)軔于那些灰暗的失業(yè)時期;受惠于這些計(jì)劃，至少發(fā)達(dá)國家的人們不再因?yàn)槭�業(yè)而陷入窮困。

　　Not even the gloomiest predict that today’s slump will approach the severity of the Depression, which shrank America’s economy by more than a quarter, and put a quarter of the working-age population out of a job. But with the world in its deepest recession since the 1930s and global trade shrinking at its fastest pace in 80 years, the misery of mass unemployment looms nonetheless, and raises the big question posed in the Depression: what should governments do?

　　即使是最悲觀的預(yù)計(jì)都不認(rèn)為眼下的衰退會接近大蕭條的程度，后者使美國經(jīng)濟(jì)縮水四分之一，四分之一的就業(yè)人口失去工作。但隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)自1930年代以來的最大幅度衰退以及全球貿(mào)易80年來的最快速萎縮，大規(guī)模失業(yè)的惡魘再度凸顯，并且拋出了和大蕭條時期一樣的大問題：政府應(yīng)該做些什么?

　　Join the queue 加入失業(yè)隊(duì)伍

　　In the rich world the job losses are starkest in America, where the recession began. Its flexible labour market has shed 4.4m jobs since the downturn began in December 2007, including more than 600,000 in each of the past three months. The unemployment rate jumped to 8.1% in February, the highest in a quarter-century. An American who loses his job today has less of a chance of finding another one than at any time since records began half a century ago. That is especially worrying when the finances of many households have come to depend on two full incomes.

　　富裕國家的失業(yè)問題在衰退肇始的美國最為顯著。自從07年12月經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入低迷以來，美國靈活的勞動力市場已經(jīng)溢出了440萬份失業(yè)，其中在過去三個月內(nèi)每月產(chǎn)生了60萬份。二月的失業(yè)率躍升至8.1%，是25年來的最高數(shù)字。比起有紀(jì)錄的半個世紀(jì)內(nèi)的任何時期，眼下失業(yè)的美國人更難再找到一份工作。特別是當(dāng)很多家庭的財(cái)政依靠雙職工收入的時候，這種情況尤其令人堪憂。

　　But it is already clear that unemployment will strike hard far beyond America and Britain. In Japan output is plunging faster than in other rich economies. Although unemployment is low, rapid job losses among Japan’s army of temporary workers are exposing the unfairness of a two-tier labour market and straining an egalitarian society.

　　然而顯而易見的是，失業(yè)問題的沉重打擊遠(yuǎn)不止于美國和英國。日本的生產(chǎn)量比其他富裕經(jīng)濟(jì)體下降得更快。盡管失業(yè)率尚低，但臨時工當(dāng)中快速增長的失業(yè)大軍顯示了“雙層勞工市場”的不公平性，加劇了一個平等社會中的緊張。

　　In Europe joblessness has grown fastest in places such as Spain and Ireland, where building booms have crashed, but has only begun to edge up elsewhere. The unemployment rates in many European countries are below America’s, but that may be because their more rigid labour markets adjust more slowly to falling demand. Given how fast European economies are shrinking, nobody doubts that worse lies ahead. By the end of 2010, unemployment in much of the rich world is likely to be above 10%.

　　在歐洲，建筑業(yè)熱潮遭遇重創(chuàng)的西班牙和愛爾蘭等國失業(yè)速度增長最快，而在其他地方則初現(xiàn)端倪。很多歐洲國家的失業(yè)率都低于美國，但也許這只是因?yàn)樗鼈冇懈�加�?yán)格的勞工市場，從而對下降的市場需求適應(yīng)更慢。面對著快速萎縮的歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)，沒有人會懷疑更糟糕的就業(yè)局面就在眼前。到2010年底，多數(shù)富裕國家的失業(yè)率可能會超過10%。

　　In the emerging world the pattern will be different, but the outcome more painful. As trade shrinks, millions of workers are losing their foothold on the bottom rungs of the global supply chain. Poverty will rise as they sink into informal work or move back to the land. The World Bank expects some 53m people to fall below the level of extreme poverty this year.

　　發(fā)展中國家的情況就不一樣了，只不過結(jié)果會更人頭疼。隨著貿(mào)易萎縮，數(shù)以百萬計(jì)的工人正失去他們在全球供應(yīng)鏈條底端的立錐之地。他們轉(zhuǎn)向非正式工作或者回到農(nóng)村，伴隨而來的是貧困問題的抬頭。世界銀行預(yù)計(jì)，今年將有約5300萬人降到極端貧困線以下。

　　Politics dictates that governments must intervene energetically to help. That’s partly because capital has taken such a large share of profits for so many years that the pendulum is bound to swing back and partly because, having just given trillions of dollars to the banks, politicians will be under pressure to put vast amounts of money into saving jobs. But help cannot be measured in dollars alone. Badly designed policies can be self-defeating. After the recessions of the 1970s and early 1980s, Europe’s rigid labour-markets kept unemployment high for decades.

　　政治上，政府必須全力介入進(jìn)行援助。這一方面是因?yàn)槎嗄暌詠碣Y本在利潤中占去了很大份額，重心注定要返回;另一方面是因?yàn)榻o了銀行萬億計(jì)美元的當(dāng)政者們承擔(dān)著巨大的壓力，需要大量注資來挽救就業(yè)崗位。然而挽救不能僅以美元來衡量。錯誤的決策反倒會弄巧成拙。自1970年代和1980年代初期的經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退以來，歐洲缺乏靈活度的勞動力市場就使失業(yè)率幾十年來居高不下。

　　Governments are piling in with short-term help for workers. In America, which has one of the lowest social safety nets in the rich world, extending unemployment benefits was, rightly, part of the recent stimulus package. Japan is giving social assistance to “non regular” workers, a group that has long been ignored. In general, however, it makes more sense to pay companies to keep people in work than to subsidise unemployment. Many countries are topping up the earnings of workers on shortened weeks or forced leave.

　　各國政府正為勞動者提供大量的短期援助。美國的社會保障體系在富裕國家中處于最低，而最近出臺的經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激計(jì)劃中，擴(kuò)大失業(yè)救濟(jì)金惠及面恰恰是計(jì)劃中的一部分。日本為長期以來受忽視的“非固定”勞動者群體提供社會援助。不過總的來說，比起失業(yè)補(bǔ)助，資助企業(yè)以留住員工才是明智之舉。很多國家通過縮短每周工作日或強(qiáng)制休假來滿足勞工薪資。

　　These are sensible measures, so long as they are time-limited; for, in the short term, governments need to do all they can to sustain demand. But the jobs crisis, alas, is unlikely to be short-lived. Even if the recession ends soon (and there is little sign of that happening), the asset bust and the excessive borrowing that led to it are likely to overshadow the world economy for many years to come. Moreover, many of yesterday’s jobs, from Spanish bricklayer to Wall Street trader, are not coming back. People will have to shift out of old occupations and into new ones.

　　這些措施在一定時限內(nèi)是合理的：因?yàn)樵诙唐趦?nèi)，政府需要盡全力維持需求。只是哎呀，就業(yè)危機(jī)不大可能只在短期內(nèi)存在。即便經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退很快結(jié)束(而且?guī)缀醪豢赡馨l(fā)生)，引起這場危機(jī)的陰云——資金短缺和過度借貸——將在接下來繼續(xù)籠罩世界經(jīng)濟(jì)長達(dá)數(shù)年。更有甚者，不論是西班牙的砌磚匠還是華爾街的交易員，很多昔日的就業(yè)崗位會一去不復(fù)返。人們將被迫告別現(xiàn)有職位，轉(zhuǎn)行進(jìn)入新崗位。

　　A difficult dance 艱難的舞步

　　Over the next couple of years, politicians will have to perform a difficult policy U-turn; for, in the long term, they need flexible labour markets. That will mean abolishing job-subsidy programmes, taking away protected workers’ privileges and making it easier for businesses to restructure by laying people off. Countries such as Japan, with two-tier workforces in which an army of temporary workers with few protections toil alongside mollycoddled folk with many, will need to narrow that disparity by making the latter easier to fire.

　　在接下來的幾年中，政治家們不得不做出一個180度的艱難政策轉(zhuǎn)變：因?yàn)閺拈L遠(yuǎn)來看，他們需要一個靈活的勞動力市場。這意味著廢除工作補(bǔ)貼計(jì)劃，去除受保護(hù)勞工的特權(quán)，以及幫助企業(yè)更方便地裁員從而進(jìn)行重組。像日本這樣具有雙層勞動力結(jié)構(gòu)的國家，大量埋頭苦干的臨時勞工缺乏就業(yè)保障，而被嬌生慣養(yǎng)的上層員工卻能享受到多重保護(hù)。這種差別需要通過嚴(yán)格上層員工的裁汰制度加以消除。

　　The euphemism for that is “flexibility”. The bare truth is that the more easily jobs can be destroyed, the more easily new ones can be created. The programmes that help today, by keeping people in existing jobs, will tomorrow become a drag on the great adjustment that lies ahead. As time goes by, spending on keeping people in old jobs will need to be cut, and replaced with spending on training them for new ones. Governments will have to switch from policies to support demand to policies to make their labour markets more flexible. That is going to require fancy political footwork; but politicians will have to perform those steps, because if they fail to, they will stifle growth.

　　這些措施可以委婉地概括為“靈活性”措施。更直白的事實(shí)是，現(xiàn)有工作越容易被廢棄，新工作就越容易被創(chuàng)造。眼下這些保住人們飯碗的援助計(jì)劃會在今后成為調(diào)整適應(yīng)今后形勢的拖累。隨著時間推移，用在保留人員舊崗位的指出需要削減，取而代之的是為新崗位培養(yǎng)勞動者的開支。各國政府需要從支持需求的政策轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)榻ㄔO(shè)一個更靈活的勞動力市場。這種轉(zhuǎn)變需要富有想象力的政治謀劃，但確實(shí)當(dāng)政者們必須完成的步驟：因?yàn)槿绻�他們不這樣做，增長將被遏制。

　　However well governments design their policies, unemployment is going to rise sharply, for some time. At best it will blight millions of lives for years. The politicians’ task is to make sure the misery is not measured in decades.

　　然而，不論政府政策制定的多么完美，失業(yè)率在一段時間內(nèi)仍將陡增。不過充其量它會在幾年內(nèi)讓數(shù)百萬人的生計(jì)陷于困境。當(dāng)政者的任務(wù)是不要讓這場不幸延續(xù)數(shù)十年。

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