全球股市波動并非中國制造

　　周四再次提醒人們，與通貨緊縮或手機不同，全球市場的波動并非中國制造。在中國國內(nèi)股市暴跌兩天后，平安保險(Ping An Insurance)股價在上市首日大漲38%。

　　Thursday provided another reminder that global market movements - unlike, say, deflation or mobile handsets - are not made in China. Two days after the Chinese domestic equity market fell out of bed, Ping An Insurance shares leapt 38 per cent on their debut.

　　誠然，平安是在全球最大的市場上賣保險，但僅憑這一點，很難證明其市凈率較全球保險業(yè)平均水平高出三倍是合理的。實際上，中國境外投資者對平安保險的估值較其內(nèi)地新股東低28%。許多兩地上市的中國股票都存在令人瞠目的估值差距。平安保險最大競爭對手中國人壽(China Life)香港上市的股價就較內(nèi)地低40%。匯豐(HSBC)持有平安保險的部分股權(quán)。

　　Sure, Ping An sells insurance in the world's biggest market, but that alone hardly justifies a price-to-book multiple that is four times the industry's global average. Indeed, investors outside China value shares in Ping An, which is partly owned by HSBC, at a 28 per cent discount to the new mainland shareholders. Yawning valuation gaps exist among many of China's dual-listed stocks. China Life, Ping An's bigger rival, is 40 per cent cheaper across the border in Hong Kong.

　　盡管目前以人民幣計價的中國A股市場市值已達1.4萬億美元，但國際準則在這里顯然并不適用。股票交易主要取決于變化無常的市場人氣：以中國國航(Air China)為例，由于市場需求不旺，該公司去年夏季被迫削減了首次公開發(fā)行(IPO)規(guī)模。結(jié)構(gòu)性制約因素依然存在。中國國內(nèi)投資者的投資渠道非常有限，因此，在市場行情好的時候，新股發(fā)行基本上可以保證獲得極高的超額認購率--還有高股價和驚人的首日漲幅。自2000年以來，中國內(nèi)地IPO始終保持著高水平的單日平均回報率。Dealogic的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年迄今為止，中國內(nèi)地IPO的首日平均漲幅為70%，相比之下，鄰近的香港和日本則分別只有22%和44%。

　　International norms clearly do not apply, even though China's domestic-currency "A" share market now has a capitalisation of US$1,400bn. Stocks trade largely on sentiment, which can turn on a dime: witness Air China, which was forced to scale back its IPO last summer due to tepid demand. Structural constraints persist. Domestic investors have few investment options, so in good times huge over-subscription rates are more or less guaranteed - along with top-dollar prices and impressive first-day pops. Since the start of the decade, Chinese IPOs have consistently produced high average one-day returns. So far this year the average pop is 70 per cent, compared with 22 per cent in neighbouring Hong Kong and 44 per cent in Japan, according to Dealogic.

　　一個靠人氣推動的市場不斷走高似乎是一個典型的泡沫--即便經(jīng)過周二的大幅回調(diào)，上海A股市場仍高于去年年底的水平，過去12個月累計上漲114%。監(jiān)管機構(gòu)已發(fā)出大量警告，并很可能采取干預(yù)措施。但和泡沫一樣，泡沫的破裂實質(zhì)上只會波及國內(nèi)市場。外國投資者在中國A股市場的投資額不足100億美元，僅大致相當于一筆中等規(guī)模的私人股本交易。與中國公司的股價相比，他們應(yīng)該還有一些更緊迫的事情需要擔憂。

　　A sentiment-driven market spiralling higher - even after Tuesday's correction, the Shanghai "A" share market is in positive territory this year and up 114 per cent in the past 12 months - looks like a classic bubble. Regulators have warned as much, and may well intervene. But the bursting, like the bubble, will be essentially domestic. Foreigners have less than $10bn in the market, or about the same as in a mid-sized private equity deal, and should have more pressing things to fret about than Chinese share prices.